Hi Arnout, did Hungary not want to prevent a ban on the import of Russian oil at all costs?
‘That’s right. Hungary is very dependent on Russian oil. Just over half of the oil comes through the Druzhba pipeline, which dates back to the Soviet Union. That Russian oil is fairly cheap. In addition, if the country has to get rid of it, Hungary will have to adapt its refineries. The sixth European sanctions package, which includes the boycott of Russian oil, is therefore also referred to in Hungary as an ‘atomic bomb’ on the Hungarian economy.
‘In Hungary, moreover, both the energy price and the petrol price are regulated by the state. The government has put a price freeze on petrol prices since last autumn. So if oil becomes more expensive, Viktor Orbán’s government will have a political problem.
Orban’s political line has always been: the Hungarians are not going to pay the price of this war. It is not our war, it sounds in Hungary. With that stance, Orbán also won the parliamentary elections. During the campaign, pro-government media reported that the opposition would drag Hungary into the war, although that was patently untrue. Orbán promised to keep Hungary politically and economically safe. He therefore has to fight for cheap energy and petrol for his supporters.’
Nevertheless, there are signals from Brussels that the negotiations on the oil boycott are in the final phase.
‘That’s right. The proponents of the oil embargo are exerting great diplomatic pressure on Hungary. On Monday, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen paid a surprise visit to Budapest. It is special that she flies to Orbán especially to convince him. French President Emmanuel Macron will call the Hungarian Prime Minister today, the French Minister of European Affairs said this morning.
What could have convinced Orbán in terms of content?
Orbán bet on an exceptional position. Other EU countries that have objected to the oil embargo, such as the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Bulgaria, appear to be satisfied with a long-term plan: they need to get rid of Russian oil less quickly than other member states. Those countries are now negotiating a deadline of June or the end of 2024. This gives them time to find other suppliers or to convert their own refineries.
‘Hungary is the only country that did not agree to such a time frame. Orbán wants to be able to decide for himself when Hungary will stop with Russian oil. Initially he proposed a term of five years, but last weekend signals came out that he might want to negotiate an even greater exceptional position.’
Critics of Orbán say that the prime minister wants to break the deadlock with the European Commission over the corona recovery fund with his threat of a veto. But a veto does not seem to have been a topic of conversation with von der Leyen on Monday evening. It would be unprecedented for Orbán to end sanctions against Russia. He hadn’t done that before.’
How do countries like Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic actually view the Hungarian attitude?
‘There the Hungarian lack of solidarity with Ukraine creates a lot of resentment. These countries, along with the Baltic states, are leading the way in sanctions against Russia. Poland, for example, the largest NATO member in the region, has already provided significant military and humanitarian aid. The way that country views the war is diametrically opposed to Hungary’s attitude. Slovakia, which is much more dependent on Russian oil than Hungary, is also sending weapons to Ukraine.
‘Many diplomatic agreements between Poland and Hungary have been shelved. For example, a state visit by the Hungarian president to Poland was recently cancelled. And a historical object that should go back to Hungary from Krakow, remains in Poland for the time being.
‘Last week Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala was interviewed by the German newspaper Die Welt† The reporter told him that the Czech Republic is somewhat in the same boat as Hungary. Then Fiala immediately said: we are very different. Although the Czech Republic needs extra time for the oil embargo, according to Fiala, the country is much more cooperative and compliant than Hungary. You mustn’t compare us to Orbán, said Fiala.’
What does this mean for the Visegrad Group, the alliance of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic?
“The four countries haven’t come together lately. When Orbán’s anti-Ukraine rhetoric peaked in the week before the Hungarian elections, the Czech defense minister called off a military summit of the Visegrad group in Budapest. She noted that Russian oil is apparently more important to the Hungarians than the blood of the Ukrainians. That is a big statement for a politician.
“The last time that alliance of the four Central European countries met was in February. That shows how alone Orbán is in it.’
Are there also critical voices in Hungary?
‘Yes, but very limited. Some NGOs and think tanks are critical. The independent media does report on links between Orbán and Russian President Putin, but 80 to 85 percent of the media is owned by the government or government-affiliated companies. After the devastating defeat in the recent elections, the political opposition is a bit on the brink. It will take a while for them to recover. The collective dissenting voice you heard before the elections is hard to find in Hungary at the moment.’