Black Friday forecast 2022: saving as a business model

According to the IT provider in the field of performance marketing Admitad, saving will become a business model this year. He examined more than 210 million online orders worldwide, including 10 million orders in Germany, for the same period last year in November. The evaluation allows us to predict which segments will prove to be the most popular with German customers during this Black Friday and autumn holiday period.

For some retailers, the global provider predicts sales that will triple during Cyber ​​Week and Black Friday. In addition to cosmetic products, the strong-selling segments will also include household products such as fan heaters or water-saving regulators. Clothing, shoes and accessories remain in the upper range.

Top Goods and Services on Black Friday 2021. Image: Admitad

Singles Day is catching up

Singles Day, actually a Chinese holiday on November 11th, is also catching up in Germany and has now become a second Black Friday. “Large companies take the day as an opportunity to hold real discount battles. Similar to Black Friday, prices are falling significantly, especially for lifestyle products,” says Admitad.

In Germany, several participants recorded six-digit sales on November 11, 2021, just like in the previous year. This corresponds to an increase in sales of + 118 percent and the number of orders rose from almost 7,000 the day before to 32,000.

Should sales consistently remain the same throughout the month, Admitad anticipates a threefold increase for some merchants. Many consumers use offers to look for bargains and save. Many of them are already getting Christmas presents in November and buying them on Black Friday, Singles Day or Cyber ​​Monday.

Cashback popular, as well as social commerce

Admitad found that consumers are again expecting offers during Cyber ​​Week and Black Friday this year. The cashback service and voucher codes are particularly popular. In 2021, a significant number of users (36.4 percent) were motivated to shop on Black Friday by lucrative offers from cashback services. Another 19.4 percent of users decided to buy via recommendations from online media and blogs, 7.8 percent via affiliate shops and 7.5 percent via coupon services. A large part of the influx (9.7 percent) came via Messenger and social networks.

“We expect that cashback services, as well as online media and social media, will become an even more important acquisition channel during the 2022 fall sale season,” predicts Admitad.

After all, social commerce will become more popular and thus more important, and messenger services such as WhatsApp or Telegram will rise to become the strongest selling channels. This year, sales on these platforms have already increased by 96 percent. Sales via mobile applications have also multiplied.

“Even if consumer sentiment in Germany continues to fall, it is to be hoped that social commerce will be discovered and used by many retailers. In volatile times, the opinion of your neighbors and your own community counts the most,” summarizes Admitad.

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