The current Rapid Reaction Force (NRF) consists of national units (on land, at sea and in the air) of Member States, which together can mobilize 40,000 troops. The fact that the number of rapidly deployable troops will increase more than sevenfold will have major consequences for member states. Many national units have a longer reaction time, or are committed to other tasks.
The recently published Dutch defense memorandum already anticipated the need to speed up the response time for more units, but this can become quite a challenge, says Clingendael expert Dick Zandee in an initial response. ‘Not only will the number of soldiers that must be ready to deploy will increase sharply, units will also have to be permanently available. So the Ministry of Defense has to recruit those personnel quickly, otherwise we won’t be able to make it.’
Stoltenberg made his commitment in the run-up to the NATO summit in Madrid, which begins Tuesday evening with a dinner for government leaders. It is one of the responses to Russian aggression in Ukraine and other threats in what Stoltenberg calls “an era of strategic rivalry,” along with the strengthening of NATO’s eastern flank to be announced at the summit.
Forward Defense
NATO will have a greater presence, especially in Poland and the militarily vulnerable Baltic countries: the mainly symbolic ‘tripwire’ function of the multinational units that have been active there since 2014 is turning into a forward defense with more soldiers and also more equipment and supplies are available in those countries.
The intention is that units from NATO countries will be allocated specific sectors where they will be deployed in a conflict. This includes a multinational brigade (of between three and five thousand soldiers) in each of the Baltic countries and Poland. But these soldiers are not stationed permanently along the eastern flank of the alliance, as the Balts wanted. The ‘fold-out model’ is a compromise that, say NATO experts, retains enough flexibility to deploy units where they are needed. For example, according to this model, Germany will significantly increase its contribution in Lithuania. The Netherlands is in consultation with the Germans whether and, if so, how it can increase its contribution.
When asked about Russian threats against Lithuania (which does not allow goods subject to EU sanctions to pass through to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad), Stoltenberg recalled reinforcements that had already been sent to eastern NATO territory. “Credible deterrence is not there to provoke, but to prevent conflict.” According to Stoltenberg, Russian President Putin understands the implications of an attack on a NATO member state. He said Lithuania is implementing EU sanctions that are also supported by NATO.
Consultation with Erdogan
The NATO chief also announced that Presidents Erdogan (Turkey), Sauli Niinistö (Finland) and Magdalena Andersson (Sweden) have accepted his invitation to meet in Madrid before the official start of the summit on Tuesday.
The meeting is the culmination of intense crisis diplomacy in recent days and weeks between involved parties, Stoltenberg and other NATO countries. The latter are keen to lift the Turkish blockade on Finnish and Swedish membership as soon as possible, preferably before the summit. That would increase the message of unity towards Putin.
Stoltenberg could not say Monday whether those diplomatic efforts will be successful at the summit. ‘I can’t make any promises. But the aim of tomorrow’s consultations is, of course, to make progress. We’ve been working hard to make sure they get there as soon as possible. Their application for membership is historic and will increase the security of the Euro-Atlantic area.”
NATO also released its latest defense spending figures on Monday. These suddenly show a large increase in many countries (not all: Belgium is one of the exceptions). Nine allies are already at the level of 2 percent of national income agreed in 2014, another nineteen other countries (including temporarily the Netherlands) will achieve that in 2024, according to Stoltenberg.