With its “Outrageous Predictions”, Saxo Bank publishes strange predictions every year, which do not represent serious forecasts or the opinion of the Danish bank, but rather are to be understood as a kind of warning for investors – especially what is unlikely but still possible are.
• Coca-Cola and McDonald’s shares benefit from GLP-1 obesity drugs
• Crackdown on artificial intelligence
• Confidence in fiat monetary system weakens – big gains for gold, silver and cryptocurrencies
Every year it’s that time: Saxo Bank presents its “Outrageous Predictions” for the new year. In its “Outrageous Predictions” for 2024, the bank looks at “how the world is dealing with the ultimate end of the ‘old normal’ and how new technologies are solving old problems while creating new, perhaps more dangerous dilemmas,” writes Saxo Bank.
Saudi Arabia transforms Champions League into global club competition
According to one of Saxo Bank’s unusual forecasts, Saudi Arabia could cause a stir in 2024: The desert state would benefit from a sharp increase in oil prices, which could climb to $150 per barrel around the middle of the year. Meanwhile, with oil revenues rising, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would launch a successful attempt to buy the UEFA Champions League with the support of FIFA. The Saudis would then convert the competition into a global club competition. That could double Manchester United’s share price.
GLP-1 obesity drugs
Another prediction is that GLP-1 obesity drugs could cause “people to stop exercising and eat more junk food.” Since the supply of the pills will fall short of demand in 2024, as predicted, obesity rates will rise worldwide, which will also lead to an increase in associated health problems and a decline in global productivity. For the processing food industry This means a significant increase in demand, “McDonald’s and Coca-Cola share prices are each outperforming the broader markets by 60%,” it says.
Income from government bonds tax-free
According to Saxo Bank, the US government may be forced to “exponentially increase government spending in the wake of the 2024 elections to keep the economy afloat and avoid social unrest.” Demand for US government bonds will remain subdued. As a result, there will be an increase in US Treasury yields and the US government will exempt income from Treasury bonds to normalize borrowing costs.
Tough action against artificial intelligence
In another unlikely scenario, Saxo Bank predicts that a generative AI deepfake will trigger a national security crisis. Governments would then take tough action against artificial intelligence and slow down the hype around the trendy topic – VCs would leave the industry. AI-generated news would attract increasing public distrust and governments would pass new laws so that only a small group of companies would be allowed to distribute public news.
Deficit countries form “Rome Club”
In another of its “Outrageous Predictions,” Saxo Bank writes that a group of six deficit countries will form a “Rome Club” after the US debt situation is no longer controllable. This will negotiate new world trade conditions together with the surplus countries. “The fact that the world reserve currency is out of control reduces confidence in the fiat monetary system and leads to big gains for gold, silver and cryptocurrencies,” said Saxo Bank experts.
Third candidate wins US presidential election
In 2024, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a third-party candidate, will win the presidential election for the first time in US history, is another curious prediction from Saxo Bank. “His populist program against warmongering Democrats and against business elites resonates with both disgruntled traditional Democrats and Trump supporters,” it says. A new political era begins with the rejection of plutocracy. Voters would demand an end to inequality, injustice and an end to eternal wars.
BoJ will be forced to give up control of the yield curve
Another prediction says that the end of the deflation and rising wages and private investment in Japan are bringing productivity improvements and rapid economic growth. The Bank of Japan is forced to “end its yield curve control policy in 2024” as the Japanese economy is over-stimulated. “This is leading to a decline in global bond markets as Japanese investors move money back home,” it said. This would affect the market as follows: “The yen is getting stronger as Japanese investors repatriate money into domestic assets, pushing USDJPY below 130, EURJPY below 140 and AUDJPY below 88.”
New wealth tax in the EU
In another scenario, the EU Commission is implementing a law that taxes 2 percent of wealth annually in order to obtain more funds for various political goals. The law is sending shockwaves through the European luxury industry and causing LVMH shares and other luxury stocks to plummet.
Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions may not be particularly likely, but they may make investors sharpen their awareness of possible risks.
Editorial team finanzen.net
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