The second leg hosted by FC Dila is practically tied.
Tim Väyrynen and KuPS will play the Euro match in Georgia. Juha Tamminen/AOP
The most interesting game of the day
KuPS is looking for a place in the Conference League far away in Georgia. The starting positions are excellent after the home game of the opening part, because Kukkoinggi has a 2-0 lead in his pocket.
The opening match was very much as expected. FC Dila wanted to keep the ball, gave a tight and active press from time to time, but also knew how to defend their own from the lower third quite closely. In the offensive direction, the Georgians could not really create quality chances at all, but there were still glimpses of danger.
Now the Georgians are forced to open their game from a two-goal chasing position. Of course, there is no reason to raise the risk levels in the opening period. The pressure is on the home team and the home crowd turning from supporter to critic is one of KuPS’s possibilities. The team, which has smartly strengthened its composition, has been tactically high-quality and mature in the European games – and the pace does not seem to change from here.
As the most enthusiastic will surely remember from the preview written a week ago, FC Dila is a team that is basically attack-oriented. Now, when the hosts are more active up front, excellent seams also open up for Kukkönig to counter-attack after the exploits. It is also certain that the guests will serve up an active press at least from time to time, when the turning points can be reached from good field positions. Dila has not become known for his quality defense of quick attacks.
Unlike the opening part, the Georgians play clearly more actively. However, KuPS can certainly also create its own management periods, which is really good, especially in the leading position of the overall result. When the opponent keeps the playing instrument off and controls it himself, it is quite unlikely that yours will ring.
KuPS is still a higher quality team as a whole – and this was also shown in the opening half. The difference is not huge, but still. This time, I estimate a 36 percent probability for a home win. Tasur will have 27 surfaces, in which case KuPS will get the remaining share, i.e. 37 percent. In practice, the game is started from equal positions. Therefore, there are not very big advantages in Veikkaus’ coefficients. In the 1X2 market, KuPS’s 2.74 is a marginal over-multiplier in my estimation (limit factor 2.70). However, the closest to the game is the draw-no-bet option of the Asian handicap, where Kukköngi’s coefficient of 1.96 is in the limit coefficient of the tis model.
There is also a very minimal advantage on the goals betting side. You shouldn’t stare too much at the goal waiting and the events of the opening part, because now there is probably quite a different match ahead, where the game is more undulating and Dila also gets his own place to score. My goal prediction for this second leg is around 2.75, in which case the 1.93 offered for more than 2.5 goals is practically at the limit coefficient (1.92), when the estimate for the event is 52 pins,
The most likely final results of the match are 1-1, 0-1 and 1-0 and the match starts at 20:00.
The best betting tip of the day
The best game idea of the day can be found in the European Championship, in the match between Italy and Iceland.
Italy is basically a team that defends compactly and often quite low. This happens above all against top countries, but lower blocks have also been seen with teams of the same level. The French press caught Italy’s pants by surprise, and nothing was going to come of the game’s governing structure. Italy wants to play in the country from the bottom up. After the crushing defeat, the team planned to be second in the group now finds itself in a mentally draining place. With the match program and the situation in the group, a draw would not be a big disappointment or challenge for Italy yet.
Iceland, on the other hand, played better against Belgium, but had to settle for a 1-1 draw. With the result, the Icelanders can’t really do anything other than a win at this point, because there is hardly any spokes budgeted for France. Thus, in a tie situation, Iceland should be a more active party and dare to raise the risk levels. The team’s offensive end is deterred by special situations, but also by the country’s typical long boundary throws, which cause confusion in the box. The Icelandic press is active, but of course not as high-quality as in France. All in all, Iceland has the skills to create exploits from a high position on the field and thus the skills to create dangerous scoring situations from turnovers.
My estimate for Italy’s victory is 43 percent, so Iceland will enter the game as the underdog. However, the situation in the block must be taken into account and Iceland’s place of risk must be recognized. Veikkaus offers a coefficient of 3.35 for direct wins in Iceland, which is a small overcoefficient, because Arvioni’s event has 31 surfaces, so the limit coefficient is 3.23. The expected value remains so small that there is no official hint about Iceland at this point, but again – with a small bet you can try Iceland’s direct win.
The match starts at 19:00.
Games of the day: No game.
Every day Iltalehti chooses the most interesting game of the day and the best game destination of the day. You can always find them in the Betting and Ravit section.
Pete Käenmäki