Big bets also promise a good game for the second meeting between Ludogorets and HJK.
Miro Tenho returns to HJK’s strength. Matti Raivio
The most interesting game of the day
Today, Ludogorets Razgrad and HJK have a replay of their meeting a week ago in Helsinki at Bolt Arena. Now we play in Razgrad on the natural grass of the Huvepharma Arena – a small advantage for the home team at the start. A week ago, the match was more or less in line with expectations and HJK was able to give Ludogorets a decent resistance, as I predicted, based on the events of the game, HJK almost deserved a win instead of a 1-1 draw. HJK, who expected a goal in the match, won 1.8-1.6.
The settings of the second match are quite different from a week ago. HJK’s still realistic goal is to beat Ludogorets now and thus be able to aim for the Conference League playoff spot brought by the third place in the group. Ludogorets’ situation became clear in the last round of matches, even though the team itself did not win in Helsinki. Betis’ away win over AS Roma meant that Ludogorets now has at least second place in the group and progress to the playoffs of this level. In practice, this means for the team today both an opportunity and a forced win from their “easy” home game.
The attacking Ludogorets might even be suitable for HJK, because based on the opening match, the absolute offensive strength of Ludogorets is and was the attackers (Bernard Tekpetey, Matías Tissera and Cauly in the front nose) fast vertical runs. If and when Ludogorets now at home has to take possession of the ball more than in the opening match (49%), then the opportunities for these counterattacks will basically decrease. Of course, Ludogorets is used to playing in a dominant role – even with good success – in their home league, but I still see an opportunity for HJK to build their own game on the opponent’s weapons, i.e. on their own harpoon attacks. The key question is of course the resilience of HJK’s defense against the opponent’s long periods of ball control and attack.
The most significant of the news from the composition department, especially considering the picture of the match, is that HJK will get back in this game the defender who was suspended in the last match Miro Tenhon. Last Sunday, HJK secured their third consecutive championship in their home Veikkausliiga. In principle, that event can have negative or positive reflections on this match. I personally believe that the team took the championship in the “right” way and that it only gives more excitement to this “bonus game”.
In terms of the balance of power, the Ludogorets–HJK match should be considered quite heavily home-based, just because of the teams’ basic categories. Veikkaus is, however, in its odds too much for Ludogorets, and nothing interesting can be found on the side of the favorite.
In terms of betting, the 1.84 odds offered for more than 2.5 goals definitely tastes the best here. Even from the opening match, I was expecting a game with a lot more goals than the market estimates, and my expectations were met with a very fast-paced match with plenty of goals. I can’t really think of any reasons why the second meeting would be calmer than the expected 3.5 goal opening game, with the home team running around with power. Of course, one scenario would be that Ludogorets in a possible goal leading position would calm down the game significantly, but I can hardly believe this. The teams of the Balkan countries have not usually been in the habit of giving initiatives to their opponents.
The match starts at 22:00.
The best betting tip of the day
Thursday’s best long bet is Toronto’s regular-time win over Washington with odds of 1.69. Both teams opened their season with a loss. Toronto allowed a spirited Montreal to surprise them away in an even match 4-3 (expected goal 2.5-2.6) and, accordingly, two key players (Nicklas Backström and Tom Wilson) suffering from injuries, Washington was weak at home against Boston 2–5 (expected 2.7–3.2). I personally consider Toronto to be a significantly stronger team of the two, and now at home, I consider their winning probability to be clearly higher than Veikkaus’ estimates. Toronto is also eligible for the coupon at an estimate of 60%. Toronto–Washington starts at 2:30.
Another incident that goes all the way to the games can be found in the snooker Scottish Open qualifiers. Made a return to the professional tour last year Alfred Burden has not really convinced with his new arrival. In his fourteen previous games, Burden has played exactly one Championship League game as an amateur Farakh Ajaibi against, all others the Englishman has lost. Burden’s previous victory was almost a year ago in the European Masters qualifiers. Now the next one Liu Haotian belongs to China’s rising young snooker generation and is currently a better player than Burden for sure. Good betting choices are Haotian’s win of the whole match over 2.5 frames with a coefficient of 2.44 and Haotian’s lead after four frames with a coefficient of 1.77. Personally, I choose the latter bet, which hits more often in games.
Lyu Haotian–Alfred Burden is marked to start tomorrow, Friday at 12:00.
Games of the day: Toronto-Washington 1 (odds 1.69) and Lyu Haotian-Alfred Burden, first four frames 1 (odds 1.77).
Total balance of the day’s games for the year: 53/89/107%
Every day Iltalehti chooses the most interesting game of the day and the best game destination of the day. You can always find them in the Betting and Ravit section.