The vote will first be given to the voters on Wednesday, but if the opinion polls are not completely wrong, the Netherlands – just like four years ago – is on the eve of a political landslide. Where Forum for Democracy surprisingly became the largest in the Provincial Council elections and in the Senate in 2019, a breakthrough of the BoerBurgerBeweging (BBB) now seems imminent.
According to the polls, Caroline van der Plas’ party can become the big winner in several provinces and BBB will decide with the VVD and the combination of GroenLinks/PvdA who will be the largest in the senate. The implications of such a monster victory can be great, especially for the nitrogen policy and the stability of Rutte IV.
The VVD tried to ignore BBB as much as possible during the campaign and, by attacking the ‘left cloud’ of GroenLinks and PvdA, tried to dissuade right-wing voters from voting for BBB. Almost frantically, Prime Minister Mark Rutte and VVD party leader Edith Schippers started every interview and TV debate about the economy and taxes. While voters consider provincial themes such as nitrogen, climate and housing to be important, research by I&O Research showed. “These elections are very clearly about whether politics should continue on the current path when it comes to nitrogen or climate,” says I&O researcher Asher van der Schelde. “The VVD preferred to stay away from that, while BBB says very clearly that things have to be done differently.”
Randstad and the rest of the country
The polls show that the result could deepen the gap between the Randstad and the rest of the country. BBB seems to score remarkably well in the northern and eastern provinces, while VVD and GroenLinks are doing better in the Randstad provinces. Out I&O research it turns out that BBB’ers think that politics in The Hague forgets the rest of the Netherlands too often.
Voters often cite nitrogen policy as an important argument for voting for BBB, but the party appeals to a broader sense of unease, says Van der Schelde. “Nitrogen symbolizes something bigger, the feeling of rural people that others are telling them how to live.”
A major BBB victory can affect the governability of the Netherlands in several ways. According to research, BBB attracts voters from all kinds of parties and within the coalition, especially from the CDA and, to a lesser extent, the VVD. The CDA can become a small party in the provinces and the Senate. This means that the VVD is in danger of losing its most reliable and natural ally in local coalitions.
Majority on the right
In many provinces, a coalition without a BBB will be numerically difficult, so the VVD will have to sit down with that party. This can bring provincial VVD factions into conflict with the cabinet about nitrogen policy, if provinces, for example, question the target for halving emissions by 2030.
In the Senate, it will be exciting whether the coalition can easily continue to govern with the support of GroenLinks and PvdA, as has happened in recent years on important issues. With 32 seats, the coalition already lacks a majority, and that minority is in danger of shrinking. The worst-case scenario for Rutte IV is that soon only a majority on the right can be achieved, via BBB and, for example, JA21.
That could seriously make it difficult to achieve the climate and nitrogen targets, which is unacceptable to D66. At the same time, stoically continuing to rule over the left after a big victory for BBB is unattractive for VVD and CDA. They will fear that Van der Plas’ party can also benefit from unease about the ‘left-wing’ cabinet policy in the next parliamentary elections.
Read also: With Caroline van der Plas on a campaign. ‘Would you like to have a final debate with me, Mark?‘
The established parties can also hope that newcomer BBB, just like FVD, will fall apart arguing. The party has done everything to prevent that. For example, BBB skipped the municipal elections in order to select candidates for the provinces with extra care. From Thursday it must become clear whether the BBB can sustain the rapid growth, and the party may show in the provinces that it is not a one-hit wonder but a keeper.
Battle with the water board p. 4-5
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of March 15, 2023