In the end you just speculate that sooner or later the results under Fischer will be right again.
I think it is entirely possible that the results will not be correct again. At some point he will be fired, as has happened everywhere (coaches have also been fired in Freiburg). The core idea is that in the medium term it is better to go through a crisis with a coach who has achieved good results for years (and with whom the cooperation and transfer policy is coordinated) than to get coaches who have been with others for years Clubs have had poor results.
Alongside:
They didn’t lose any important players in the summer. So it’s the same squad. In addition, they showed good performances on the 1st and 2nd matchdays (table leaders on the 2nd matchday).
There is no reason to assume that what works on matchdays 1 and 2 with this squad and coach will no longer work for the rest of the season.
It is almost impossible that Union Berlin will find a better coach for itself. Of course there are lucky ones like Favre, Tuchel, Nagelsmann, or now Sebastian Hoeneß. If Union Berlin is sure that they can score such a lucky goal, they will change the coach. But they could have done that after successful seasons if they found someone better.
Firing the successful coach in a panic in a crisis and then trying to keep the class with a run-of-the-mill coach (or worse) is a mistake.
Even if that doesn’t work this season and Union goes down under successful coach Fischer, promotion again will work out, as was the case in Freiburg
I actually don’t necessarily believe that. Maybe because of the player material, but the style of play doesn’t lend itself to “we have to level up” psychology. That’s precisely the problem that you can’t currently act from the “We can wait and see. A 0-0 is enough for us.” underdog role.
I’m just very sure that there will be problems in the medium term if you change the coach now and then make a few wrong decisions (a few wrong coaches + a few wrong transfers). Which is very likely because the previous success was based on the interaction between squad planners and coaches. I don’t see that Union is good at scouting talent. Or has a strong youth workforce. They live from working with their trainer for many years.
You should also be aware that the risk is very similar to that of changing trainers.
If a coach changes, I think failure is very likely. The club is not yet at the stage where it is firmly established in the Bundesliga.
Without a change of coach, it depends on how quickly you get out of the crisis. After the crisis, the prospects are better with Urs Fischer than with another coach.
I always think it makes sense if the coaching question doesn’t vary from game to game. This creates additional paralysis for the players because they already have enough pressure and negativity without their coach’s head being at stake week after week. I would definitely continue with Urs Fischer until the winter break. Then depending on the internal mood or the internal impressions of the work of the coach and the team together. If we stand together and there is a chance that we will prepare well for the second half of the season in the winter training camp and then start again, I would continue until then, regardless of the games. (plus depending on alternatives, plus of course also depending on the style of play in the games against Bochum and Cologne shortly before Christmas)
Of course there are relationships that get stronger after a crisis and last for life, but for many this is not the case.
I think the analogy is quite good. Of course it is important that the chemistry between the coaching staff and the team is right. But the question is whether this is reflected in the results. My assessment is that in many such extreme crises there are no problems at all between coach and team. I don’t see that at Union either.
Another example would be the extreme crisis with Seoane last season. Seoane was still very popular in the team even after her dismissal! (except Amiri, because he had been sorted out, but under Xabi Alonso he was sort of sorted out again…the quality is simply not enough for the very high Bundesliga level)
Sure, we changed the coach and that paid off, but that’s not because we changed the coach. If we had a run-of-the-mill coach now, many would long for Seoane! The leap in quality is because Xabi Alonso is a very good coach with the perfect tactics for us and we were able to improve the squad perfectly with him. Before that, Seoane had played a very good season with us. He is also a good coach.
According to the same “people grow apart” logic, Union could have fired the coach in fourth place last season. That was the 5th season with Urs Fischer. In what respect is the 5th year much better than the 1st year? And then the 6th year is suddenly a total disaster? But only after the first two weekends were perfect?
In Freiburg it is much more extreme. Streich has been a coach for even longer. By its nature, pranks are guaranteed to be more strenuous and annoying. Nevertheless, the club is sticking with him.
—> My assessment of most crises is that they have nothing to do with the coaches or the relationship between coach and players. The problem is the psychology of the individual players and the team psychology when playing together. <---
A new coach can have a positive effect if the players suddenly believe in themselves again. Or when football suddenly becomes fun again. Or if you play tactically differently and the shackles have been released. Or when the new coach doesn’t change the team in dozens of positions week after week (according to the motto: “Everyone is bad, then next week others will play again”, and does so every week until all the players are in a crisis of form), but just goes along with it a solid starting eleven begins to settle in and can withstand setbacks without changing anything fundamental again. Week after week new experiments go wrong. (see Hansi Flick in the national team)
So, coaching changes can have such an effect. Especially when the team is actually in a good condition (tactically and physically), but everyone just plays without self-confidence, thinks too much, wants to force it too much, makes too many mistakes, etc. When they can’t play freely, but too much have pressure. (see Mainz, where Bo Svensson continued to do good work, but only after the dismissal and after a 0-0 half-time against Leipzig did the team cast off all shackles and furiously wrestle the opponent down) Then a no-name is often enough. Interim coach. But only in the short term.
It’s entirely possible that they’ll hold on to him and pull the ripcord next year at 14th place in League 2, then sticking with the coach won’t have helped at all
Absolutely. I think that’s possible too. I just think that without him it will be difficult in the medium term. On the other hand, if you overcome the crisis, you can create a basis for a few more years so that you can then be so established as a club in the league that you can then stay in the league with successors. Sure, if Union already has a potential successor for the next 5 years (like Freiburg did back then with Streich as a long-time A youth coach, assistant coach and then assistant coach), one could try to bring forward the transition now in the crisis.
What you can’t do is change every year with coaches who are experienced in relegation battles. If they now bring in Funkel/Magath/Sandro Schwarz/etc, that’s it. Labbadia could perhaps be good for a 1-2 year transition if the squad itself suits him (like at Wolfsburg). But then you need someone to build something afterwards (like Glasner for two years at Wolfsburg).