According to the Cru Group, Dragon represents 45% of the world’s refined copper production. According to analysts, with the growing and gradual increase in electric cars, copper may not be enough as early as 2027 and China wants to become self-sufficient. But Europe can still play the recycling card
China’s “grip” is increasingly tightening on everything related to materials useful for the production of electric vehicles. A short and increasingly controlled supply chain is what Beijing has in mind, which according to Cru Group, holds 45% of the world’s refined copper. China, after having secured lithium, cobalt and nickel, has also targeted copper and, specifically, the mines of Latin American countries. The idea is to work it at home thanks to the construction of new foundries. Craig Lang, analyst at Cru Group, said: “Like all countries, China has a strategic need for copper, particularly with the growth of green energy applications, and the China, like everyone else, wants to ensure self-sufficiency“.
estimates on the rise
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According to Carlos Risopatron, economic director of the International Copper Study Group, China’s copper smelting capacity will increase by another 45% by 2027, accounting for 61% of new installations planned worldwide during that period. Analysts, according to what was reported in a study by BloombergNef, predict a copper supply deficit as early as 2027, with a price increase that could reach up to 20%. In 2027, therefore, demand will exceed the current production capacity, estimated at around 5.4 million tonnes per year. The average cost for a ton of copper today is around $8,659, therefore 8,092 euros. In this scenario, China, which currently represents about half of the world’s copper demand, wants to move in advance so as to put its competition in a position to chase once again.
the infinite ways of recycling
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This precious red metal, that is the second best conductor of electricity after silver, is used in wind turbines, and, above all, in electric cars, which contain three times as much copper as an internal combustion car. However, in the near future where an increase in demand for copper is expected, recycling could represent more than one alternative. This is because currently more than 45% of the copper used in Europe comes from recycling activities (source: International Copper Study Group). It is in fact a metal that can be also 100% recycled. Therefore, given what was reported by theInternational Energy Agency (IEA)according to which a new copper mine takes on average 16 years to operate at full capacity, increasing recycling activities in the medium and long term could represent much more than an alternative.
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