There are barely three days of electoral rallies left and Pedro Sánchez continues to cling to his “positive” message. The campaign has gone from more to less, with newer ads at the beginning and less impressive in the final days, despite the fact that Ferraz acknowledges that he seeks to convince this week up to 15% undecided. Waiting for something epic in this last part, the president is committed to linking his management with the classic values of socialism: public health and education, feminism and decent pensions and wages.
Classicism in substance and in form, with an achievement of acts that project the image of an activated PSOE. Even, they say, more than four years ago. The calculation in Ferraz is 35,000 people from May 1 to listen to the president and 119,000 in total. He mobilization success This is a fact that is also corroborated at the territorial level. But it does not match the data from the CIS survey this Monday. This survey indicates that the socialist voter is much less motivated than the PP voter to leave home on May 28. Only 61.5% of the PSOE electorate confirms that they will vote for them on Sunday compared to 70.7% of the PP. These are relevant figures because the interviews were carried out between May 16 and 18, with the campaign already underway and, therefore, in a context of electoral tension.
Of course the survey, which also reduces the difference between the PSOE and the PP in municipal votes to 2.3 points, has not been an injection of morale for the Socialists. And less in the autonomies such as the Valencian Community, Aragon and the Balearic Islands where the difference between the block of the left and the right -the sum of one or the other will decide the victory- is very close. It is being, as stated by different sources, a week of “nerves”.
Many places “are going to be decided by a handful of votes“. In the socialist leadership they are fully aware and they emphasize that it has been known for months that the right was much more mobilized. It was not necessary, they conclude that the president of the CIS, José Félix Tezanos, took pains to remember it. But now, according to the data they handle, “the mobilization of the left has increased”. “We are optimistic”, stand out. “There is neither a plebiscite nor a motion of censure against Sánchez.”
The PP “returns to our framework”
Faced with a muscular PSOE, in Ferraz they defend that the PP “arrives bottomless” because “they did not prepare the campaign well nor have they managed the times”. This Tuesday at the Badajoz rally of the President of the Government there were “three times more than when Feijóo was there.” And they have had, sources from the leadership continue, many more “punctures” in “Murcia, Badajoz, Santander, Teruel, or Valladolid.” “They threw out the rest on Valencia day, with half of the bullring from outside the region, and the rest of the rallies seem like wakes.”
And this week, after the presence of ETA members on the Bildu lists focused the beginning of the campaign, the Socialists consider that the PP has returned “to enter our framework”, in reference to the fact that Alberto Núñez Feijóo responded to the announcements about investment in primary care and mental health. Something that in Ferraz they see “a major mistake” because “It gives focus to our proposals”. That happens, they insist, because they do not follow a plan.
Hidden vote of the undecided?
“They had two possible campaigns, the ‘blue wave’, which they quickly saw was a tidal wave, and the collapse of the economy. Both collapsed. They subscribed to ETA for a few days, something they had not even foreseen, and when that well it has dried up, there is nothing, the void”, they maintain.
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This signaling of the opponent’s rulings allows the PSOE to maintain that they are still in a position to prevail in the municipal vote, even if it is by “little difference” and offer a good regional balance with practically assured regions such as Asturias, Extremadura, Navarra and Castilla La-Mancha. and more uncertain autonomies, such as the Valencian Community, the Balearic Islands, La Rioja, Aragon and the Canary Islands, since in all of them the socialists -in the leadership and in each territory- continue to be optimistic.
Nobody in the party talks openly about lost territories, only that in some there are more doubts than in others and that it will be participation is important. Even in those that are considered won, it is believed that there will be an even greater mobilization than expected. A feeling based on the belief that those who say they have not yet decided on their vote are really people who do not say they are going to support the PSOE. “Hidden vote” for the Socialists in the final sprint.