Artificial intelligence: Bill Gates’ forecast for the next ten years

• Artificial intelligence on the rise
• Bill Gates acknowledges risks associated with AI
• Above all, he sees multiple possible uses

With the release of ChatGPT, a chatbot that can write entire texts, the topic of “artificial intelligence” moved into the public eye. Opinions differ widely on this. While some praise the enormous potential, others warn of the possible dangers of this technology.

For example, at the end of March 2023, numerous high-ranking tech experts such as Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak in an open letter for a six-month pause in the development of artificial intelligence. This time should be used to set security standards for the development of this fairly new technology and to avert possible damage from the riskiest AI technologies. For example, the authors of the letter, which was signed by over 1,000 people, are concerned that generative AI like ChatGPT is capable of simulating human interaction. This technology is now so advanced that even the developers can no longer understand their programs or control them effectively. As a result, the information channels could be flooded with propaganda and untruths and self-fulfilling jobs could be rationalized away.

Jack of all trades Musk originally co-founded the ChatGPT developer as a non-profit organization, but he has also repeatedly expressed criticism of the subject of AI. The visionary finally withdrew from the AI ​​start-up after OpenAI boss Sam Altman had his plans pushed ahead with the development of AI software through large-scale financial and technical cooperations, especially with Windows developer Microsoft.

In the office

Microsoft founder Bill Gates also sees risks in the use of artificial intelligence, but above all he sees many areas that can benefit from it. On his Gates Notes blog, he enthusiastically equates AI with the invention of the microprocessor, the PC, the Internet, and the cell phone.

“As computing power becomes cheaper and cheaper, GPT’s ability to express ideas will increasingly be like having an employee helping you with various tasks,” Gates wrote. In his opinion, AI will mature into a “digital personal assistant” that will help with writing e-mails, reports and managing the inbox, for example, and thus improve productivity in the office.

In the medicine

In addition, Bill Gates believes that AI can also be of great help in healthcare, by relieving staff of tasks such as filing insurance claims, filling out paperwork and writing doctor’s reports. This gives the medical staff more time to better care for the patients. AI could possibly even be used for remote diagnostics.

In particular, however, research is being promoted. The billionaire believes that AI will be able to predict side effects, determine dosages and even develop drugs and vaccines. That’s why Gates predicts a “dramatic” acceleration of medical breakthroughs.

In education

Just as in the healthcare sector, AI can also relieve teachers of administrative work such as creating timetables or planning appointments for parent-teacher meetings. This gives teachers more time to devote to their students. Because “AI will improve, but never replace, the work that students and teachers do together in the classroom,” writes Gates.

Nevertheless, AI will have a major impact on the education system in the next five to ten years, and not just because of the content that the machine can deliver. Artificial intelligence will soon help teachers find out what motivates their students, what interests them and what their learning style is.

risks

Regarding possible problems related to AI, Bill Gates admits that it is currently still making mistakes. However, he is optimistic that these “will be largely resolved in less than two years, possibly much sooner”.

He’s also worried about the possibility that people “armed” with AI could misuse this technology. Governments and the private sector would have to work together to limit the risks.

The Microsoft founder also addressed the possible danger of a “super-intelligent” AI that gets out of control and sets its own goals: “What will those goals be? What happens if they collide with the interests of mankind? Should we trying to prevent strong AI from ever being developed?” In this regard, Gates emphasized that even after the breakthroughs of recent months, we are still far from a so-called strong AI, which aims to create intelligent machines that are indistinguishable from the human mind. In his opinion, it could be a decade or even a century before that happens. “Artificial intelligence still has no control over the physical world and cannot set its own goals,” said the ex-CEO of Microsoft.

Editorial office finanzen.net

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