Are we heading for military conflict in Ukraine? “This is especially strong piece of bluff poker from Russia” | Abroad

The reason for the simmering conflict is the location of ‘buffer country’ Ukraine, which borders on the one hand to Russia but on the other hand to the European Union. In recent years, the former Soviet republic has also sought more and more rapprochement with the West. In 2008, Ukraine was even promised that it would one day become a member of NATO, the Western military alliance.

And that is anything but Russian President Vladimir Putin. Above all, he wants Ukraine not to conduct its own foreign policy and to remain a kind of ‘satellite state’ of Russia. Putin likes to call the Ukrainians “Little Russians”. By this he refers to the fact that historically both peoples share the same language, culture and religion.

The Russian president is willing to make a concession and not to attack Ukraine, but in return he wants a number of rock-solid guarantees from the West. Among other things, he demands that NATO recover military equipment from Eastern Europe and that Ukraine and other former Soviet countries never join the military alliance.

In order to increase the pressure on the West, Russia has in any case started sending troops to the border region with Ukraine since November. In the meantime, about 100,000 soldiers are said to have gathered there. According to Putin, the troops are part of a joint combat exercise with the Belarusian army and there is nothing wrong.

But the West is very concerned about the military presence. According to the US, it is now even greater than in 2014, at the time of the annexation of Crimea. There are also concerns about a possible Russian false-flag operation, a covert operation in eastern Ukraine that would serve as an excuse to inflame the conflict.

Several Ukrainian government websites were also recently shut down, according to the government the work of Russian hackers. Russia, in turn, accuses the West of heightening tensions by supplying Kiev with modern weapons.

If it actually comes to a military confrontation, the consequences for Russia will be dire. The United States has announced that it will impose “severe sanctions”. The European Union has already extended economic sanctions against Russia, which have been in place since 2014. However, experts say that if Russia attacks Ukraine, action will be taken harder than ever.

Last week – for the first time in more than two years – there was again diplomatic consultation between the NATO countries and Russia, in a so-called NATO-Russia Council. The meeting did not yield much, but NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg has sent a new invitation to Russia.

The question is whether there is a way out of this apparent deadlock and whether we are heading for a new military conflict. According to professor Fabienne Bossuyt, things will not go so smoothly. “I think this is a strong example of Russian bluff poker. We know they dare to provoke, and Putin is now once again employing some of the Cold War tactics. But when push comes to shove, I don’t see this escalating into a military conflict. I don’t think Russia will take the risk, because that would have far-reaching consequences.”

Bossuyt still hopes for a diplomatic solution and is looking with hope to France and Germany, who want to reactivate the so-called Normandy format (talks between Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany). “Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has in any case indicated that Russia is prepared to do so under certain conditions. If there is one country that could turn the conflict, it is Germany,” concludes the Ghent University professor.