Arctic is warming nearly four times faster than global average, new study finds | Science & Planet

On a regional level, some areas in the Arctic Ocean have even warmed up to seven times faster than the entire planet, the scientists write in the journal Communications Earth & Environment. “Climate models have until now underestimated this so-called ‘polar gain’,” says lead author Mika Rantanen.

Until now, the Arctic has always been warming twice as fast. But an Arctic Council working group based in Tromsø, Norway, the intergovernmental forum for cooperation and coordination for the Arctic, had reported as early as May 2021 that the increase in average Arctic surface temperature between 1971 and 2019, by 3.1 degrees Celsius, was was about three times higher than the global average.

Why the estimate of the Finnish researchers is now even higher? On the one hand, they point to the strong and persistent warming of the Arctic, but their definition of the Arctic and the calculation period also differ. They defined the Arctic as the entire zone located within the Northern Arctic Circle. The magnitude of the warming has also been calculated since 1979, the first year that detailed and therefore reliable satellite data were available.

The magnitude of the polar gain is influenced both by human activity-induced climate change, such as greenhouse gas emissions, and by natural long-term climatic variations, according to the Finnish researchers. Both factors have therefore probably led to an increase in reinforcement over the past 43 years.

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