The state pension age will be raised by three months as life expectancy continues to rise. From 2028, people will receive their state pension when they are 67 years and three months. This puts an end to the stable retirement age of 67 in previous years.
This is apparent from calculations by this newspaper based on the new life expectancy of Statistics Netherlands (CBS). CBS researcher Ruben van Gaalen confirms this: “Based on the calculation formula, the increased life expectancy would lead to an extra quarter.”
Corona caused higher mortality in the Netherlands. As a result, the life expectancy of the elderly has decreased over the past two years. But according to new forecasts, we will on average age again in the coming years. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports this. “We see no reason to assume that the pre-corona trend will not continue,” says CBS researcher Ruben van Gaalen. “We therefore expect the increase in life expectancy to continue.”
According to the latest forecasts, the life expectancy of 65-year-olds in 2028 will be 21.05 years. The structural development is that the Dutch are on average getting older. Corona caused a trend break that, according to Van Gaalen, is ‘temporary’.
Statistics Netherlands always looks a few years ahead to determine the life expectancy of everyone who is then 65 years old. On the basis of this, the Minister of Social Affairs annually determines the state pension age in five years. In this way, older workers can anticipate a changing state pension age in good time.
In order to keep old age affordable, the fixed AOW age of 65 has been dropped from 2013 onwards. The rising retirement age was introduced by the Rutte I cabinet. This increase was later accelerated by Rutte II. This led to protests from trade unions that stipulated in the 2019 Pension Agreement that the state pension age would increase less rapidly. The current state pension age is 66 years and seven months. In 2023 and 2024, it will increase by three and two months respectively.
Life expectancy
The state pension age is directly linked to the life expectancy of the elderly. Initially the intention was that this would be translated one to one. Then people would have to work a year longer if life expectancy increases by one year. This link has been adjusted since the Pension Agreement. Now two-thirds of the increase in life expectancy is translated into a higher state pension age. According to these projections, the state pension age would be 68 in 2039.
In the years 2020 and 2021, the life expectancy of the elderly decreased. However, according to Statistics Netherlands, the upward trend has now started again. “Corona will have no structural effect on people’s life expectancy,” says researcher Van Gaalen. “It is true that more people have died than expected, life expectancy has taken a knock at the moment.”
“There are all kinds of pluses and minuses associated with the pandemic. The pandemic has also led to an incredible development in the fight against infectious diseases.”
According to Van Gaalen, the past shows that the trend will eventually be continued. “If you look at life expectancy in other countries, you can see that we haven’t reached the ceiling yet. Life expectancy in countries such as France, Italy, Spain and Japan is higher. Within Europe we are a mid-sized engine.”