Annual outlook for 2024: These are the 20 trends for the new stock market year

Trend 10: The collapse in nominal economic growth from 8 to 10 percent in 2022 to 2 to 4 percent in 2024 clouds the sales outlook for corporate profits. The German economy is expected to grow by only 2.4 percent nominally in 2024, with real growth of -0.3 percent and inflation of 2.7 percent. In 2022, however, nominal growth was 8.7 percent and in 2023 it was 5.4 percent. In the USA, the economy is expected to grow nominally by only 3.8 percent in 2024, after 10.1 percent in 2022 and 6.6 percent in 2023. In the past two years, many companies increased their sales primarily through price increases. But in an environment with weak nominal economic growth, there is hardly any room for price pass-through, meaning that many companies’ sales are unlikely to grow in 2024.

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