Although the political leaders will repeat several times each day that the elections are Andalusian and nothing else, no one is unaware, neither are they, that the result of 19-J in Andalusia will be read in a state code. It happens in all regional elections, but this time that global projection will be more based than in others. Not in vain is it the community in which the PSOE has always had its largest granary of votes and where the Socialists have won 10 of the 11 elections held so far, including those of 2018, in which the sum of the three rights snatched the government from them and promoted Moreno Bonilla to the presidency. Now, together with the foreseeable revalidation of the Executive of the Andalusian PP -the doubt is whether it will incorporate Vox or not- what is also at stake is the first proof of the leadership of Alberto Núñez Feijóo and, therefore, his first serious duel with President Pedro Sánchez. Not a launch like the one that will take place on Tuesday in the Senate, no matter how much expectation it arouses, a real challenge, one that is evaluated with the only reliable meter, the votes of the voters.
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Things are not looking good for Sánchez. The polls give the PP the winner and the most benevolent leave the PSOE at the figures it reached four years ago, but now below the popular ones, which they would take over a good part of the Ciudadanos voters. So, except for surprise, it seems that the first electoral round will be won by Feijóo. He will not do it, yet, on his own merits but thanks to the good image of Moreno Bonilla, whom most Andalusians believe has not broken a plate in his four years as head of the Board and whom his pacts with the extreme right do not seem to take their toll on him. Feijóo will also benefit from the demobilization of the left-wing electorate, both the socialist and those who vote for IU, United We Can or Adelante Andalucía, which, in the midst of so much divisive noise, seems not to value enough the successes of the Government de Sánchez, those that the president and the socialists want to sell in this campaign (only Andalusian?).
But the leader of the PP will be wrong if, after an electoral victory in Andalusia, he considers Pedro Sánchez to be amortized. Not just because I came in the virtues of the Prime Minister there is that of resistance and, almost more importantly, that of resilience, but because there is still a long way to go before the general elections are called, and although the pessimists say that from now on everything will get worse —inflation, rising interest rates, stagflation— with the speed with which things are happening lately, some as staggering as the pandemic, nothing can be taken for granted. And for now, the socialist president is still lucky. To give an example, despite the gibberish that is mounted every time there is a vote in Parliament, So far he has pulled them all off. So Sanchez may lose a battle, but he will still fight tirelessly to try and win the war. It is the nature of him.