The president of the Junta de Andalucía reviewed two of the many calls he had received on election night. One, of course, that of the president of his party, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, that made it clear to him that after that overwhelming absolute majority, he was already “the caliph & rdquor; of PP, one step above the rest of the regional presidents. The other message was from a historical socialist whose identity is preserved. After congratulating him, he told him that he had achieved in the Andalusian community what he PSOE he achieved in 1982. “We did this to the UCD & rdquor ;, he told him. Juan Manuel Moreno has copied many things from Felipe González, a politician whom he has publicly acknowledged that he admires since his youth. “The change is that Spain works”González explained about the campaign motto, ‘For change’, which in 1982 led him to an absolute majority. “The change is that Andalusia works & rdquor ;, Moreno has repeated twenty years later ad nauseam every time he has been asked about his government. In the headquarters of the Andalusian PP they have admitted on many occasions that it was the objective, to repeat that feat. In the 1982 elections, the PSOE went from 30% of the votes of 79 to 48.11%. On June 19, the PP of Moreno jumped from 20.75% of the votes to 43.13%. It surpassed the twenty points of difference. There is no precedent for this jump in votes with only one electoral call in between. The PP got it from 1993 to 2000, but it needed two electoral contests.
The PP has won in Andalusia in three and a half years a total of 830,000 votes. she has done with ‘the Juanma brand’, avoiding some acronyms of the PP that they admit do not work in a community where there is still a lot of ideological trench and in a moderate center path, without falling into provocations, without messing with the PSOE or Vox. Nothing remained of that Moreno who in 2018 opened his campaign at the doors of a brothel to denounce the excesses of the PSOE and rode his entire campaign on the back of corruption and socialist heritage. On this occasion, Moreno has not insulted anyone.
No one expected such a landslide victory. Previous polls placed the PP between 47 and 51 seats. Only the ‘tracking’ of GAD3, made with 9,200 interviews, a thousand daily, between June 6 and 18, nailed the result. Moreno began to believe that the absolute could be possible from Thursday. Never, he has admitted in public, he thought of the 58 deputies.
Moreno’s PP has managed to increase its votes by more than 20 percentage points since 2018. Its vast majority is based on three keys. The first is the complete absorption of Cs, who disappears from Parliament. This would point to the balance of the popular half a million votes about.
The popular believe that they also recover vote escaped to Vox in the last general election. The far-right party wins a total of one hundred thousand votes compared to 2018. However, comparing with the general elections, where the PP was just 7,000 votes short of Vox, which gave it the ‘sorpasso’ in four of the eight Andalusian provinces, the fall of the candidacy Macarena Olona is almost 400,000 votes.The PP recovers space to the right
In cities and towns where Vox held rallies and had swept the general elections, the PP has won these regional elections. In El Ejido, Almería, the only town where Vox won in the 2018 regional elections, the PP obtained 47.56% of the votes and Vox 27%. Dark uploaded almost 5,500 votes, practically doubled its results. In Lucena, Algeciras or Lepe the PP has doubled its results and in all of them the extreme right is behind.
Undoubtedly, the third leg of the resounding absolute majority of the PP in Andalusia after 40 years is in the vote given from the left, it is conceivable that above all the PSOE. The socialists deny that transfer, but the evidence speaks. Previous surveys indicated data such as 25% of socialist voters valued the Board’s management as good or very good. Faced with this, 20% of these voters described Pedro Sánchez’s management as bad or very bad. In all the surveys he paid attention to at least 10% transfer of socialist voters to the PP. In some, above 15%. With all these data on the table, the PSOE continues to deny that jump and blames its poor results on abstention, which was two points lower than in 2018.
The PP indicates that it has a transfer of votes of approximately 5% of the United Left and more than 10% of the PSOE. Waiting for the post-election barometer that the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) usually does, in a few weeks, where the data will be more rigorous, the popular ones look at the municipal and his triumph in towns where they don’t even have a councilman. In the province of Seville, the data is historical for the PP, they had never managed to defeat the PSOE in any electoral appointment. The PP goes from 3 to 9 deputies. The PSOE falls from six to five. In Malagathe popular victory is overwhelming, with 47% of the votes.
There are striking cases. Utrera (52,600 inhabitants) the PP did not obtain representation in the municipal passes. It has no councillor. got 969 votes in the latest locations. This Sunday Moreno added 9,341 votes, 6,211 more than in the last elections. The PSOE lost 1,482 votes.
In historical strongholds of the PSOE such as Alcala de Guadaira or Dos Hermanas, which are part of the red industrial belt of Seville, the results are also surprising. In the first town, the PP goes from 4,500 votes in 2018 to 13,413, tripling its results. In Dos Hermanas, which has always been the talisman town of the Socialists, the PP goes from 6,700 votes to 23,600. In both wins the PSOE for the first time.
Abstention does not explain everything
The left has been punished by abstention, but not only that. This Sunday there were almost two more points of participation (58.36 of 56.56%) than in 2018 and, however, the PSOE, Por Andalucía y Adelante Andalucía, they lost more than a quarter of a million votes. More people voted than in the last Andalusian elections and there are fewer votes on the left. Relying on the lack of mobilization leaves important questions unaddressed.
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It is also striking in these elections that the PP has won the story of the useful vote to stop Vox. Among the many flags you snatch from the PSOE is that one too. Moreno, who managed to reach the Board in 2018 by agreeing on his investiture with Vox, has managed to convince the Andalusians that the best thing to avoid Macarena Olona in the Government was to give her an absolute majority. While the PP was placed, according to the CIS Barometer, as the party that best defends the interests of the community or that most resembles Andalusia For most Andalusians, the PSOE continued to clamor at its rallies about the February 28, 1980 referendum that gave Andalusia first-rate autonomy.
The PSOE has not yet found out about this social change. appealed to what happened forty years ago while Moreno sang the Andalusian anthem at all his rallies and closed his speech on election night waving a white and green flag that some children gave him at the beginning of the campaign. The 50% of the electoral roll with the right to vote born after 1980.