The big question is whether there has been an electoral turnaround in Andalusia, if Andalusia has gone from being a bastion of the left to being an autonomous community of the right. If one analyzes the results of 2018 and those of 2022, the results of Moreno Bonilla and his absolute majority are the result of adding all the votes of the rights of 2018 and subtract the few votes that his companions from the conservative bloc have managed to scratch. So we can say, with the data in hand, that the great electoral change took place four years ago, when some voters who had traditionally trusted the PSOE fled to a ‘bridging right’ and voted for Cs. Once a ‘light right’ has been voted for, the taboos that Moreno Bonilla knew how to interpret were broken, exercising a presidency without fanfare that would activate the antibodies of the left.
Moreno’s spectacular victory leaves two victims, a touch of death, Citizens; and another, in a less serious state but pending evolution, Vox. The orange party does not even get an Igea and its message of repeating the government that allowed the change has been interpreted by its voters as a call to vote useful to Moreno. Ciudadanos loses the last autonomous government going from vice-presidency to irrelevance, a case of unmitigated debacle that surely will have many forensic studies to explain it. At this time, the survival of Ciudadanos does not happen by being critical of the PP, or by wanting to continue agreeing with them. Vox inflated expectations so much with his #macarenazo that his two deputies suppose un brake to its general ascent, puncturing what seemed to be the unstoppable rise of the extreme right. They trusted everything to the polls and clumsily and aggressively executed a campaign against an untouchable Moreno. In fact, the entire national team went to Andalusia to continue with a spiral of success that did not come despite raising their results, from the macarenazo to the prick.
The other serious crisis that these results open is on the left, and with several fronts. The first in the PSOE of Andalusia with the worst result of the formation and more than 300,000 voters who stayed at home compared to the diminished result of Díaz. The change in socialist leadership was not enough to be a shock to his traditional electorate. The campaign with a message based on the useful vote to stop Vox was a great gift for Moreno Bonilla which was perceived by Andalusians as the real anti-Olona vote. The change in Andalusia has not been a parenthesis as it was in Extremadura, but has been consolidated, partly due to the socialists’ demerit.
The space to the left of the PSOE has two very different aspects. Rodríguez gets a consolation prize that is worth it to keep his organization alive after the schisms with his former partners. Nevertheless, For Andalusia it falls far short of expectations and above all, it represents the first failure of the attempt to amalgamate different organizations without success. The small truce that they had achieved during the campaign was broken by Nieto’s speech, which he charged against Rodríguez in what seems to be the prelude to the second part of the war between the two formations, something that has not brought him good results and that in the future can hamper your survival.
national keys
Moreno Bonilla has become de facto the natural successor to Feijoó. yesi the new president of the PP was the undisputed leader among his peers and that earned him the appointment of the only possible successor to Casado, the Andalusian enters the Olympus of absolute majorities in a political era of great fragmentation. Until now, the Vox imitation Ayuso model had been the most imitated and praised formula among the popular to deal with the flight of votes towards the extreme right, now Moreno with a radically different strategy, based on moderation, obtains greater support than the Madrilenian. How will Ayuso and the Madrid media right react… Will the formula be changed or will it finally be understood that each territory has its desire, that each constituency and each appointment has its peculiarities, that what works in Catalonia does not have to work in Andalusia or Valencia?
Related news
In socialism, one must reflect on the usefulness of the strategy of Pedro and the wolf with Vox. Those of the extreme right have ceased to be the needle that made voters jump out of the armchair to vote and thus confront him. All the more reason if, as it seems, Vox has reached the ceiling. The left must find a story about its usefulness that he uses his own positive forces and not as a reaction to those of Abascal. Undoubtedly, the battle will be in the emotional field in the coming months, the slab of the change of cycle will be a hard battle for the socialists at the national level. However, the positive reading of the absolute majority of Moreno for the Socialists is that the PSOE should not bear the responsibility of creating a cordon sanitaire in Andalusia, something that was surely prepared by the Popular Party, as when Rajoy could not do government to the second and the pressure fell on the PSOE.
Yolanda Díaz is going to have to face her peculiar battle in her field. The followers of Iglesias will point to the vice president as responsible for Nieto’s failure, without considering the haste of the union, the fragmentation of the space and the lack of drive for change that existed in Andalusia. It seems that his main supporter in another time will be his main adversary in his new political project that seeks to flee from the acronyms that he cannot control. Definitely, starting a new electoral offer with the ballast of Nieto and Oltra does not bode well for the future. We will see if the strength of the Galician manages to withstand the internal opposition and the adverse situation.