Geert Wilders’ PVV won almost a quarter of the votes in the elections, making it the largest faction in the House of Representatives. Many protest votes against the policy of the Rutte cabinet ultimately did not go to Pieter Omtzigt’s newcomer NSC, but to Wilders.
GroenLinks-PvdA seems to come out second and the VVD third, but the difference between the two is very small. Omtzigt’s New Social Contract has still obtained about twenty seats as a new party.
The good result for Wilders can be seen as a strong signal against Rutte’s policies and against migration. Wilders is seen by part of the population as the main opposition leader against the cabinet.
Omtzigt seemed to be able to play that role in recent weeks and, according to polls, was heading for a win until a week ago. But the picture has changed especially since last week’s TV debates, probably also because of Omtzigt’s long hesitation about whether he wanted to become prime minister.
Many new party leaders
Wilders is also the most famous politician who participated as party leader this time. The other parties almost all had a new party leader and those names were less known to the general public. This year’s turnout is also somewhat lower than usual, which indicates that politicians such as Frans Timmermans and Dilan Yeşilgöz are unable to enthuse large groups of new voters to vote.
The PVV hardly campaigned until Wilders appeared on television in the election debates in the last two weeks, where he made a strong impression with his clear language. His milder tone over the past week also appeared to work.
The PVV is cashing in on the theme of migration, which dominated this campaign after the VVD dropped the Rutte cabinet on the subject. Voter surveys have also shown that population growth from outside the Netherlands is one of the biggest concerns among almost all groups of voters. What also helped was that VVD leader Yeşilgöz seemed to open the door to a cabinet with Wilders.
No democratic party
Limiting migration and ‘standing up for ordinary Dutch people’ were important themes for voters. Omtzigt, Yesilguz and Timmermans also said they found these themes important. But apparently more voters have confidence in Wilders that something is really being done about these points. After all, Pieter Omtzigt also used the figure of 50,000 and made social security his theme. The VVD under Dilan Yeşilgöz also said it would be stricter against asylum migration.
The difficult thing about the result is that almost all other parties find it difficult to live with a cabinet led by Prime Minister Wilders. He wants to leave the EU, wants to stop support for Ukraine and is controversial in many countries because of his position on Islam. According to the other parties, the Netherlands would become internationally isolated under Wilders and that is bad for trade.
Another difficult point is that the PVV has no internal democracy; Wilders is the only member and leads the party single-handedly. Members of Parliament of the PVV have little freedom. That is difficult to maintain if the party had to provide ministers and a party leader.
BBB and D66 are left behind
There will now be considerable pressure on VVD and NSC to join a cabinet with Wilders. He also continues to take a milder stance on results evening and even stated that he will adhere to the constitution. However, despite the big win for Wilders, the chance will remain quite high that VVD and NSC will ultimately see no other option than to enter into a government with GroenLinks-PvdA.
D66 has survived reasonably well with about ten seats, although the difference with the 24 in the previous elections is large. And BBB is down significantly compared to last spring’s provincial elections, but still has about six seats. Both could therefore still play a role in a coalition, on the right or on the left.
It is a setback for the VVD that Yeşilgöz, who had been high in the polls for a long time, was ultimately unable to win so clearly. In recent days she tried to play the trump card of ‘possibly first female prime minister’. For example, she appeared in the last TV debate in white, a symbol of female political leadership brought over from the US.
For the Northern Netherlands, this result shows that the North is quite split. Voting analyzes show that GroenLinks-PvdA and VVD are quite large in the north and center of Drenthe and around the city of Groningen. Further into the provinces towards East Groningen and East Drenthe, Wilders’ PVV is clearly the largest. The areas where residents earn slightly better on average voted predominantly left or liberal, while the areas with lower incomes cast more of a protest vote. A difference that seems to be increasing in recent years.