The ‘God of War’ is what Soviet leader Joseph Stalin once called artillery. These days the Ukrainian army, with the help of the West, is trying to silence the mighty Russian weapon that has been wreaking havoc on cities and on the battlefield for 105 days.
American AN/TPQ-36 radar systems quickly calculate where the grenades and missiles were fired after a Russian attack. Using their modern American and French howitzers, the Ukrainians can then strike back in tens of seconds to destroy Russia’s TOS-1 missile systems and Msta howitzers.
A TOS-1 unit had to deal with that on Friday. About fifty seconds after a Russian missile was fired, according to a video from the Russian newspaper IzvestiaUkrainian artillery already fired on the launch site. After two minutes, everyone fled.
The problem is, the Russians have a lot of artillery pieces in eastern Ukraine. Moreover, they can often attack the Ukrainian army with impunity from a great distance because Kyiv does not have grenades and missiles with such a long range. The delivery in the coming weeks of new American and British missile systems, capable of targeting Russian artillery up to 80 kilometers away, should herald a change in artillery battle.
It is a battle that is now largely hidden from view. There are plenty of images of Russian units firing countless missiles at Ukrainian positions in the Donbas in a short time on open ground. There are also plenty of videos of Ukrainian soldiers firing their American M777 and French Caesar howitzers. But what we don’t see is the cat-and-mouse game that both armies stage to hit and evade each other as hard as possible in the artillery duels.
The resources
‘Two things are crucial for such an artillery battle,’ says Lieutenant General Retd Hans van Griensven, former head of Operations of the Royal Netherlands Army. “You have to know where your opponent is and you have to have the means to attack them. With the American radars, the Ukrainians can calculate exactly where the Russian artillery is firing from the sound and the incoming missile. But if you don’t have enough resources to fire back, it stops. Ukraine now has that disadvantage. At the right place and at the right time, they will soon be able to offer some resistance with the four American Himars missile systems.’
The condition is that Russia does not destroy the American and British weapons quickly. Both armies wield the ‘shoot and scootrule’ to keep their artillery: shoot and move your arrows at lightning speed. ‘Being static is life-threatening in such an artillery duel,’ says Van Griensven, who once taught tactics at the Higher Military School. He led the Battle of Chora in Afghanistan in 2007 when Dutch soldiers harassed the Taliban with the Armored Howitzer 2000.
Van Griensven: ‘Once the opponent has calculated where you are, you have to get out of there. A few hundred meters away is enough to be safe. Unless the Russians send a drone at you to determine your current situation. Then all they have to do is type in the coordinates to destroy you.’
The former officer does not think that directing Western missile systems will be the deciding factor in the war. Because, according to him, the fight turns into a battle of attrition ‘in which everything is shot to pieces, this has nothing to do with modern warfare’. Van Griensven: ‘These weapons will give Ukraine a temporary advantage and help to defeat the Russians locally. But winning the war with it is out of the question.’
Weak spots
The Russian army must therefore take into account that it will soon be unable to deploy its artillery in the Donbas with impunity, even if temporarily. ‘The Russians are now plowing around entire areas with their artillery,’ says Major General Retd Harm de Jonge, who, among other things, led the 11th Tank Battalion in Oirschot. “They are deploying a huge amount of artillery until they think the Ukrainians have suffered enough losses. They look for weak spots in their defense line, they stack and stack their firepower, then fire until they get through at such a weak spot. The major disadvantage of this approach is that they incur large losses.’
According to De Jonge, the best way for Ukraine to fight the Russians in the Donbas is to act in a scattered manner during a Russian attack on the ground. ‘That is also the Dutch idea of operating’, according to De Jonge, who was deputy commander of the Allied military in South Afghanistan. “It’s the best way to stop that Russian steamroller. In any case, it’s better than waiting in your trench. So always attack somewhere else and deal blows, with small units around that steamroller. Ukraine must be mobile. Compare it to an elephant being attacked by a swarm of bees.’