In politics, as in almost everything in life, compulsive reactions are the worst. Responding to the latest electoral slap without doing background checks may be worse than doing nothing. The penultimate example that we have experienced is that of Pablo Casado who wanted to cover up the failure in Castilla y León by killing Isabel Díaz Ayuso, a maneuver that took him ahead. It is evident that the Andalusian elections are very bad news for the PSOE, not only for that reason that Madrid likes the change of cycle so much that nobody knows exactly what it is, but also because of the undercurrents that it shows: the PP absorbs in practice all Citizens and stops Vox but the result is that the space to the right of the PSOE it is broader and the formal moderation of Núñez Feijóo can make it grow even more as shown the Gesop survey for Prensa Ibérica published on Friday. To the point that the sum of everything that is not PP and Vox, from the PNV to Bildu through United We Can, Esquerra, the tides, the confluences and even Junts could be insufficient as has happened in Andalusia. Having seen what Moncloa has done this first week, some barons begin to think that the best thing is that Pedro Sánchez does nothing, except one thing that he would not like at all.
Left turn without the left
The Government has activated this week the legislative agenda that, apparently, most distinguishes it from the PP: historical memory, gag law, expansionary fiscal measures, etc. He has done it in several cases without notifying his government partners, perhaps trying to imitate Feijóo’s rejection of Vox, which has given him such good results. It is true that United We Can is now a continuous disunity that can do almost nothing, but stirring in that magma is not clear either that it strengthens the PSOE or that it expands the space of the left. In some cases, such as the law so that the General Council of the Judiciary (CGPJ) can make appointments that were prohibited a few months ago, the maneuver is hard to understand even in the days of TikTok. Delving into the policies of the left in the midst of the war in Ukraine and on the eve of the European Union demanding adjustments in the face of the change in the monetary policy cycle may serve to win a couple of compliments in friendly gatherings, but it does not even guarantee the approval of some Assumable budgets by Brussels or a placid end of the legislature. Raising walls against Feijóo’s PP goes against the majority sentiment of the voters that Sánchez needs most, those in favor of understanding the PP and PSOE.
The endless dance with Esquerra
After the approval of the pardons for those convicted of 1-O, the negotiations between the governments of Sánchez and Aragonès have become an eternal preamble. They only serve to ease the mood and prevent Esquerra from systematically voting against the PSOE as the Junts partners demand. The second compulsive moment of the week was to urgently set up a meeting between Minister Bolaños and Minister Vilagrà. The result was none. With Esquerra it is not as easy as with We can apply Feijóo’s remedy with Vox because his priority at all costs is to retain power in the Generalitat. All in all, this endless dance, with no hint of a final kiss, not even on the cheek, ends up giving wings to those on both sides who despise the very idea of dialogue. Setting up meetings without results is an inefficient waste for both parties because they do not achieve anything.
In the coming months, depending on how things go, Pedro Sánchez can be put on the face of Zapatero. As long as the Next Generation funds follow the fate of plan E, the EU demands a snip like the one in May 2010 and the barons follow the path of Javier Lambán, the president may find himself in the position of having to announce that he will not He will opt for reelection before the municipal and regional ones, as Zapatero did at the time in favor of Rubalcaba. In the engine rooms of Moncloa, Ferraz and the consultancy where the great State pacts are cooked, the same protagonists of that decision nest. Except Sanchez himself.