From 2023 to 2042, 40,850 new commercial aircraft are expected to be needed worldwide, the DAX group announced in Toulouse on Wednesday. That’s 1,360 machines more than the company predicted last year for the next two decades. The main reason is an increased renewal of older jets with less fuel-thirsty models, it said.
After the slump in air traffic in the Corona crisis, the manufacturer has long since felt strong demand for new machines. Starting next Monday (June 19), the world’s largest air show will take place in Le Bourget near Paris for the first time since the pandemic. Manufacturers such as Airbus and rival Boeing from the USA show their products there and provide information about the latest developments. Boeing wants to publish its market forecast for the next 20 years this Sunday (June 18).
At least before the pandemic, the major aviation shows tended to see large orders being closed and announced in large numbers one after the other. At the Farnborough Airshow near London, which traditionally alternates annually with the Paris Air Show, the order intake in 2022 was thin. However, Airbus and Boeing brought in many orders away from the trade fairs.
Because the demand for new machines was only interrupted by the Corona crisis. According to Airbus estimates, the global aircraft fleet will more than double by 2042 compared to the beginning of 2020 to 46,560 jets. However, this would mean fewer machines in operation in 2042 than the manufacturer had forecast for 2038 before the Corona crisis in 2019. Because Airbus assumes that airlines will increasingly phase out old machines. For passenger aircraft, the Group refers to types with at least 100 seats.
According to Airbus, machines of the latest generation with reduced fuel consumption only make up around a quarter of the global fleet. In order to reduce the CO2 emissions of air traffic in view of the climate crisis, the remaining three quarters of the current fleet would first have to be replaced, it said.
In addition to the increased use of more economical aircraft types, Airbus is building on the use of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), optimizing flight operations and new technologies such as hydrogen. This could be used as a fuel like kerosene, but also in fuel cells or for the production of SAF. The manufacturer is currently working on the basics for the development of a hydrogen aircraft for passenger traffic. It is scheduled to be operational in 2035.
However, the major aircraft manufacturers are currently struggling with serious bottlenecks in their current models. The Airbus management has already postponed the planned expansion of aircraft production because important suppliers such as engine manufacturers can hardly keep up. Crucial components are always in short supply, and Airbus boss Guillaume Faury has repeatedly complained about tight labor markets. The US competitor Boeing is also dealing with production defects and other home-made problems.
Medium-haul jets such as the Airbus model family A320neo and Boeing’s competitor model 737 Max are particularly popular with airlines. That’s 32,630 machines. In addition, around 8,220 wide-bodied jets are expected to be needed for long-haul routes.
According to the forecast, almost every second of the new machines will be used by airlines in Asia and the Pacific region. The manufacturer expects a need for almost 19,000 jets there, around half of which will be accounted for by airlines from China. Almost 8,000 new aircraft would be needed in Europe and the successor states of the former Soviet Union, and almost 7,000 in North America. Companies in the Near and Middle East would need around 3,400 new aircraft. Almost every second of them is said to be a wide-bodied jet there – and thus a larger proportion than in any other region of the world.
On XETRA, Airbus shares temporarily fell by 0.34 percent to 129.62 euros on Wednesday.
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TOULOUSE (dpa-AFX)
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