agreement on export of Ukrainian grain is signed today

A grain farm in Izmajil, in southern Ukraine.Image Joris van Gennip for de Volkskrant

This is reported by the office of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan and UN Secretary-General António Guterres attended the negotiations in Istanbul.

Since the invasion of Ukraine began in late February, Russia has taken several ports on the Black Sea and held back the grain there. The Russian armed forces have also bombed a number of ports, rendering them no longer operational.

Ukraine, fearing amphibious attacks, has deposited naval mines blocking access to ports. As a result of this combination of barriers, more than 20 million tons of grain are now stuck in Ukrainian ports.

Rising food prices

As a result, food prices are rising worldwide. In Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia, 20 million people are at risk of famine due to the congestion. That is why the international community has been pushing for a quick solution for weeks.

Russia was open to that, provided a series of Western sanctions that indirectly affect Russian agricultural exports were lifted. Turkey’s foreign minister said: ‘Even if Russian (agricultural) products are not directly affected by the sanctions, there are blockades in maritime transport, insurance and banking. The United States and the European Union have made commitments to lift it.’ It is not yet clear exactly what concessions the West has made.

However, some information has seeped out recently, France24 reports. For example, a command center is being set up in Istanbul where grain exports are overseen and disputes are to be resolved. Representatives from Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations participate in the command center.

According to the United Nations, it will take another three to four weeks until this center is fully set up. This is how long it can take until the grain supply is resumed.

Particularly controversial is the inspection of the grain ships. Russia is on it, because it says it fears that weapons are being smuggled. Ukraine, however, refused to allow Russian inspectors on the ships. It is unclear who will carry out the checks, but they are likely to take place in Istanbul.

Because it takes too long to clear the mines that Ukraine has laid down, Ukrainian ships will escort the grain ships through the minefields.

The agreements are valid for 120 days. During that period, the negotiators expect to be able to transport all the grain. After that, the agreements can be extended without additional negotiations.

Deal not finalized yet

There are suspicious sounds from Ukraine. Oleksi Hontsjarko, a Ukrainian MP from the port city of Odesa, is hesitant. “We don’t have a deal yet,” he told the BBC on Thursday. ‘We don’t trust the Russians at all. So let’s wait for a final decision to be made tomorrow, and if there is no last-minute counteraction by the Russians. I have my fingers crossed that we have a deal tomorrow and that Russia will really respect it.’ Russia is currently targeting its hometown of Odesa for another round of conquests, some analysts believe.

Russia also out of mistrust. The Kremlin wants the European Union to actually lift “short-sighted sanctions” against Russia, not just make promises. According to the Russian government, there is often a gap between the intentions of the European Union and the steps that the union actually takes.

For Turkey, the conclusion of the negotiations and the agreement are also a useful PR moment. The NATO country is making itself unpopular with allies because of its relatively close ties to Moscow. As relations between the West and Russia continue to cool, Erdogan and Putin are becoming more dependent on each other. Putin thanked Erdogan on Thursday: ‘With your mediation we have made progress.’

Turkey on Wednesday sought support from Russia and Iran for a possible incursion into Syria to attack Kurdish forces there. In addition, Turkey may have been involved in the shelling of a resort town in Iraqi Kurdistan, which killed civilians.

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