For many, the preseason is the first opportunity to finally see real NFL football again. But there is sometimes an aha moment for fantasy players. Some insights are definitely helpful, while others should not be overestimated. After all, the number of snaps is far too low compared to a long NFL season that is coming up.
Three weeks of preseason games are behind us and now the drafts in fantasy football are coming up. The season is in the starting blocks. What do we take away from the first friendlies?
Khalil Herbert faces reduced snaps
After David Montgomery left the Chicago Bears for Detroit, fantasy players are eagerly awaiting the news of who will be Chicago’s first running back going forward. Because the backfield is quite relevant for fantasy football.
At first, Khalil Herbert looked like the undisputed starter. Despite the commitment of D’onta Foreman, because he was only allowed to play with the backups in the preseason and was not even rotated in at first, Herbert seemed to be able to assert himself at the beginning. But it was often heard from the training camp how enthusiastic they were about the development of rookie Roshon Johnson.
In the last preseason game, he was suddenly allowed to play all third downs in the Bears offense. If this is an indicator of what role Johnson will get in the regular season, it should reduce the number of Herbert’s snaps, thereby reducing the number of points.
I still wouldn’t put Herbert down because he’s not one of the first running backs to be drafted in your fantasy league anyway. But his previous potential to be considered a sleeper is gone. Herbert is a solid starter. Not more.
Stay away from the Eagles backfield
The roster of the Philadelphia Eagles is hard to pin down this year and the preseason couldn’t change that. D’Andre Swift, Rashaad Penny, Kenneth Gainwell, and Boston Scott would each be relevant to Fantasy as full-fledged starters.
However, with everyone threatened with a rotation role and even rumors that Gainwell may have surprisingly set himself apart from the competition in training camp, you should be very careful with the Eagles backfield.
A late pick can be used on Gainwell. But the bust potential is high. Especially since quarterback Jalen Hurts takes more snaps and touchdowns from the group in the run game.
Unjustified hype about Travis Etienne
The Jacksonville Jaguars picked Bigsby in round three of the NFL draft running back tank. Head coach Doug Pederson generally maintains a proper rotation in the backfield. That’s not good news if you’re looking to add Travis Etienne to your team.
In the preseason, Tank Bigsby got a third of the snaps with the starters, while Etienne got two-thirds. Averaging 5.7 yards per attempt, Bigsby was already more effective than last year’s starter. Rookies tend to get increasing game shares over the course of the regular season. Overall, it should come down to a half-split role in the backfield. But Bigsby is much later in the draft.
Which Chiefs running back gets the most snaps?
The Chiefs running backs should also be treated with caution. Similar to Philadelphia and Jacksonville, it’s unclear right now if Isaiah Pacheco will get the bear share of the snaps. While he should be resurrected to become the most important man in the backfield after his full recovery, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon also deserve a role. In the worst case, all three take away so many snaps that running backs are no longer worth setting up.
But we know from experience that coach Andy Reid can change his mind again. So keep a close eye on the backfield. Maybe Pacheco can pull away after all. So, if you’ve already drafted him, don’t part with him too soon.
Anthony Richardson a potential high achiever
The Indianapolis Colts have tapped Anthony Richardson as their starting quarterback. Although this will have to learn a lot in its first season, it is a potential high-flyer for your fantasy team.
He will often run with the ball in his hands. Without the presence of Jonathan Taylor even more often than expected and that also on the goal line. There are plenty of opportunities here to use touchdowns to create highly productive fantasy numbers that should obviously make Richardson a top ten quarterback in your draft.
Only three games ban for Alvin Kamara
Alvin Kamara was suspended by the NFL for three games. Because the length of his ban has long been uncertain, his expected draft position is below his actual value. Jamaal Williams will take some touchdowns from him. He could therefore be an addition if you’re drafting Kamara, as is Dalvin Cook, who will likely take the lead in the New York Jets backfield for the first few weeks before Breece Hall reports back in good health.
James Cook becomes a full-fledged starter
The Buffalo Bills hinted during the preseason that James Cook should be their full-fledged starter for the upcoming season. New signing Latavius Murray was mainly set up with the backups. James Cook played nearly all the downs with the starters in the absence of the injured Damien Harris.
Admittedly, that wasn’t many and Harris could rise in favor once he recovers. But Cook is only drafted in the middle rounds anyway and has the potential to become one of the best running backs this fantasy season after his breakthrough. The risk that it might flop is worth taking at this point.
Is Jaxon Smith-Njigba Relevant to Fantasy Football?
Before his injury, Jaxon Smith-Njigba was almost always on the field with the starters. He has established himself quickly on offense and should be back in the starting lineup soon after his recovery, which means he could live up to his first-round pick this season.
His route running is difficult to defend even by NFL starting defenders. The 21-year-old receiver will need a few more weeks. But in the second half of the season he could literally explode. Either you draft it very late now and wait patiently, or hit the waiver as soon as another owner in your league releases it. “JSN” will certainly increase in value.
Further texts for the series “Fantasy Football”
About the author: Philipp Forstner alias “Draft Nerd” is commentator assistant at RTL and moderates the conference of the German Football League. As a podcaster for “Footballquark” and an author, his expertise on the NFL and college football is in demand. Philipp will be reporting on fantasy football every Thursday for the next few weeks.