After conviction of opposition leader, hope for democracy in Cambodia is far away

The power of one of the world’s longest-serving autocrats, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, seems unassailable. Especially after the conviction of an important opposition leader to 27 years of house arrest barely four months before the elections in the Asian country.

Last Friday, opposition leader Kem Sokha (69), one of the founders of the National Salvation Party (CNRP), was convicted of treason. According to Cambodia experts, the 71-year-old Hun Sen, who has been in power for 38 years, has cleared the way for his intended successor, son Hun Manet (45), with this verdict. Critical press is gagged and most opposition members have fled or are in prison.

“This verdict is an unequivocal warning to opposition groups,” Amnesty International’s Ming Yu Hah said in a statement. Cambodian human rights activist Naly Pilorge speaks of a “new low”. “The conviction means that the social and political field is completely closed in the run-up to the national elections in July.” Her organization Licadho demands the release of all political prisoners. “Necessary if Cambodia wants to restore its democratic values.”

That wish seems far away for the time being. Cambodia experts and human rights activists agree: the trial was a political process. “It is clear to everyone that the judge was following instructions from above,” said Phil Robertson, Asia director of Human Rights Watch, on the phone from the Cambodian capital Phnom Penh. “This lawsuit had only one purpose, to silence opposition and destroy the democratic system.” According to Robertson, Hun Sen is out to “take away all hope of normal elections”.

Cambodia has become a one-party state

The conviction is based on allegations following a speech Kem Sokha gave at a seminar in Australia in 2013. He talked about campaigning for democratization. The judge said the speech was evidence that Sokha was colluding with the United States to seize power in Cambodia. “Nonsense,” refugee fellow party member Sam Rainsy told Reuters last Friday. “Sokha has been sentenced for an ordinary political speech.”

“Sokha’s conviction is the latest push in a series of moves by Hun Sen to forge Cambodia into a de facto autocratic one-party state,” Robertson said. After Sokha’s arrest in 2017, his National Salvation Party was banned. In the elections that followed in 2018, Hun Sen’s party, the Cambodian People’s Party (CCP), won all seats. Since then, opposition members have been prosecuted. For example, Rainsy, who has been living in exile since 2015, was convicted of conspiracy and sedition in a mass trial last year with dozens of other opposition members. Most activists had already left Cambodia. A few, including the American-Cambodian human rights lawyer Theary Seng (52), were still in the country. On the courthouse steps, she staged a one-woman protest dressed as a chained American Statue of Liberty. She was arrested and is currently serving a six-year prison sentence.

Press restricted

Press freedom in Cambodia has also been completely curtailed. Last month the license of the last independent media company Voice of Democracy (VOD) was revoked. VOD is renowned in the region for research into cyberslavery and corruption. The site is no longer accessible in Cambodia.

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The reason for the ban was an article in which a spokesman for Hun Sens People’s Party proudly spoke of Cambodia’s financial support to earthquake-hit Turkey. He said casually that the aid agreement had been signed by son Hun Manet. Although Cambodia experts assume that Hun Manet will follow in his father’s footsteps in 2024 or 2025, the revelation turned out to be sensitive. Because officially only high party officials are allowed to sign such agreements. Hun Manet denied signing and accused VOD of misinformation. Hun Sen seized the opportunity to shut down the critical medium. “They are attacking father and son to destroy the government,” Hun Sen told pro-government media. “They want to destroy me. It is now enough.”

Transfer of power to son

Perhaps not everyone in the party is behind the succession, suspects Charles Dunst, researcher at the American think tank CSIS. Hun Sen has recently rewarded some party cadres by appointing their children to prominent political posts, possibly to prop them up for handing over power to his son Manet, Dunst said in a recent publication.

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Like many children of Southeast Asian rulers, Hun Manet was educated in the West. He attended the American military college West Point and had a British university education. According to Dunst, Western policymakers would hope that son Manet will be less anti-Western than his father, who has close ties to China. But for now, these are castles in the air. There is also nothing to indicate that Hun Manet, general and commander of the Cambodian army since 2018, is any less autocratic than his father. “Absolutely not,” says Robertson. “In addition, Hun Sen is not going away. There are bound to be more privateers on the coast and Hun Manet is nowhere near his father’s stature and power base. Hun Sen will direct and support his son behind the scenes.”