After a price drop in BioNTech shares: why autumn could be hot

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by Julia Groß, Euro am Sonntag

Dhe cooling in the Covid-19 vaccine market can no longer be overlooked. In the second quarter, the Mainz-based biotech company earned 3.2 billion euros with its mRNA vaccine, which is 40 percent less than in the same quarter of the previous year. The operating profit has almost halved to 2.2 billion euros compared to the same period. Investors had probably hoped for more or at least speculated on an increase in the annual forecast. The share therefore slipped deep into the red, on the US market the paper fell by up to eleven percent on Monday.

This development was predictable based on the figures from Moderna and Novavax. In autumn, BioNTech boss Ugur Sahin expects an increase in demand, which is why the group is sticking to its sales forecast for the vaccine of 13 to 17 billion euros. However, it is also clear that the autumn has some uncertainties in store. The data for BioNTech’s first adapted Omicron vaccine are already with the European approval authority EMA. However, in addition to the mRNA of the original virus, this contains components of omicron BA.1, which is hardly in circulation anymore. Studies with another new vaccine, which also contains mRNA of the currently circulating BA.4/5 subtype, are about to start. The variants differ significantly, so it is conceivable (and animal data suggest) that the BA.4/5 vaccine works better. Both variant vaccines are already being produced.

The question is: will every country get the vaccine it wants in October? Or are the supposedly more effective BA.4/5 doses mainly going to the USA because the FDA insisted on them from the start? And how will this affect vaccination readiness? It is completely open whether BioNTech will derive a financial advantage or disadvantage from this mixed situation – or whether another subtype will be on the road again in winter anyway. However, Bloomberg analyst John Murphy believes the sales forecast for the full year is too conservative, based on the orders that have already been received.

Meanwhile, BioNTech is working flat out on other product candidates to combat cancer and infectious diseases. The pipeline is extensive and broad, with 18 anti-cancer compounds and soon three more vaccines against infections in clinical trials. The valuation with a P/E ratio for 2023 is eight still very cheap. who can withstand the uncertainty of the coming months and believes in BioNTech’s future, grab it.

setback: The breakout towards 185 euros has failed for the time being. The next strong support is around $120.

Notice of Conflicts of Interest:The majority owner of the sole shareholder of Finanzen Verlag GmbH, Mr. Bernd Förtsch, and the managing editor-in-chief, Mr. Frank Pöpsel, have taken direct and indirect positions on the following financial instruments mentioned in the publication or related derivatives, which may result from the publication Course development can benefit: BioNTech.

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