The cabinet can solve the nitrogen crisis for half the money that is currently available. By buying out five thousand farmers close to vulnerable nature reserves for 13 billion euros, the cabinet will achieve its nitrogen targets in one fell swoop. This is apparent from internal documents from the Ministry of Finance that NRC has seen.
This is the first time that civil servants have attempted this calculation, which shows what it would cost if the cabinet were to buy out farmers only to reduce nitrogen emissions. Finance officials, in consultation with colleagues from Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality, calculated how farms and their land could be bought up most effectively.
The research method is simple: livestock farms that emit the most nitrogen and whose animals cost the least money are bought up first. In the calculation of Finance it appears that the nitrogen crisis can be solved by buying the 10 percent largest emitters from agriculture. Other agricultural companies do not have to make (technical) adjustments. The coalition agreement stipulates that by 2030 74 percent of the vulnerable Dutch nature may no longer deteriorate as a result of nitrogen emissions.
Buying out farmers is very sensitive in the sector itself and politically, and encounters a lot of resistance. Two weeks ago, ministers Christianne van der Wal (Nature and Nitrogen, VVD) and Henk Staghouwer (Agriculture, ChristenUnie) announced how much emissions per province should be reduced. Farmers fear this clearing the countryside. They believe that the emphasis is too much on buying out companies and that other solutions are ignored, such as technical adjustments to stables or fewer animals per hectare.
Halve the poultry sector
If the plan envisaged by Finance were to become reality, the consequences for the poultry sector would be greatest: it would be halved. A quarter of the pig farms would be bought up.
It is striking that only a fraction of dairy farms are affected. Buying them is relatively expensive, according to Finance figures, because they own a lot of land. The officials assume a land price of 60,000 euros per hectare. The average price last year was 67,000 euros.
According to the calculations, buying up companies close to vulnerable nature reserves in Gelderland would be very effective in reducing nitrogen emissions. This does mean that in “large parts of the Gelderse Vallei agriculture is completely bought out”. In East Brabant, too, little agriculture could remain.
Finance also examined what happens if the restructuring pain is spread across the entire sector. For every farm belonging to the 10 percent largest emitters (about 5,000) that does not disappear completely, 27 other farms have to be bought out. In other words: the largest emitters cause 27 times as much nitrogen precipitation as an average agricultural company.
Calculating buyout is one thing, execution is another story. Until now, the government has mainly experienced how difficult this is. For example, the result of a buy-out scheme for pig farmers was disappointing: of the 430 companies that registered, 278 eventually stopped. And the nitrogen reduction was two thirds lower than expected.
Among ‘peak loaders’, farmers who emit a lot of nitrogen and who are close to nature reserves, there is also little incentive to stop for the time being. A scheme paid by the government that the provinces have been offering since November 2020 has hardly made farmers sign. Not a single farmer has stopped in ‘nitrogen hotspots’ in North Brabant and Gelderland, according to the provinces. The scheme will end next September.
The successor to this regulation is available for consultation in Brussels. According to Minister Van der Wal, this new arrangement would become “wildly attractive”; the faster farmers report, the more generous their compensation. However, it is unclear whether this is permitted under European rules. If it is not allowed, the scheme will have to go back to the drawing board and the buyout of farmers will be delayed – while the minister wants to make haste.
A spokesman for Finance confirms that Finance officials are working on figures and emphasizes that the final version will be published around the summer.
Peasant Resistance page 4-6
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of June 23, 2022