That is a sensitive loss for Macron, who needs an absolute majority to push through his reform agenda. The coalition Ensemble, which in addition to Macron’s party La République en Marche consists of a few parties loyal to him, can count on 224 seats in the French House of Representatives, according to preliminary estimates. That is far too little for an absolute majority (289) of the 577 seats.
left-wing collaboration
The second and decisive round of the parliamentary elections sets the tone for Macron’s term in office, who was re-elected as president at the end of April. Since 2002, both elections have been held in quick succession and usually the newly elected president can count on a large majority in parliament. In 2017, Macron and his then new party won 308 seats in one fell swoop.
This time things turned out differently: the main four left-wing parties decided to work together in the new Nupes alliance for this election, hoping to become the largest. The latter failed, but the alliance did help thwart an absolute majority for the president. Early estimates indicate that Nupes will become the main opposition movement in parliament with 149 seats.
Macron’s other major challenger, Marine Le Pen of Rassemblement National, also seems to be heading for a historic win with her party. According to forecasts, she can count on 89 seats – a big win compared to the 8 she won in 2017.
In the election campaign, the Macron camp focused fully on left-wing cooperation. For example, the new minister for ecological transition, Amélie de Montchalin, warned of the ‘anarchism’ and ‘chaos’ that Nupes would bring. The president himself spoke of ‘extremes’ turning against NATO ‘while I speak with Russia slaughtering civilians in Ukraine’. Though he didn’t name them, the attack targeted both Le Pen and radical left frontman Jean-Luc Mélenchon, though withdrawal from NATO is not an item on the agenda for the left-wing alliance.
Difficult term
The preliminary result on Sunday evening means that Macron faces a considerably more difficult term. To pass new laws, the president will have to work together outside of his own coalition. He may want to join the right-wing party Les Républicains, which according to forecasts can count on 78 seats. But that too is complicated: Elisabeth Borne, the new prime minister recently appointed by Macron, has a social profile.
The loss also affects the new government, which was presented just a month ago. In addition to Prime Minister Borne, another fourteen government members took part in the parliamentary elections. If they win, they would relinquish their seat to a replacement. Borne, who competed in Calvados, won in her constituency. But Amélie de Montchalin (Minister for Ecological Transition), Justine Bénin (Secretary of State for the Sea) and Brigitte Bourguignon (Minister of Health) were defeated in Essonne, Guadeloupe and Pas-de-Calais respectively. They should be replaced in the coming days.