The Russian army is advancing further and further into the Donbas. It is close to the encirclement of Severodonetsk, a city of great significance for Ukraine. If the encirclement succeeds, Russia will gain control of the entire Luhansk province for the first time.
Luhansk governor Serhi Hajdaj described the situation at Severodonetsk on Tuesday as “extremely difficult.” “The provincial capital is being destroyed with all possible weapons,” Hajdaj said on his Telegram channel. He states that Ukrainian soldiers have almost nowhere to hide and speaks of ‘a second Mariupol’, referring to the port city that was almost completely destroyed by the Russian army.
During the bombing, Severodonetsk and neighboring Lysychansk are slowly but surely surrounded by the Russian army. It is approaching from the north and east and has also taken over villages south of the provincial capital in recent days. The strip of land between Severodonetsk and the rest of unoccupied Ukraine is only 25 kilometers wide.
The Russian advance is putting pressure on Ukrainian military leadership to withdraw troops from Severodonetsk. An encirclement would probably mean the loss of a large group of soldiers and weapons. But withdrawal is also risky: the soldiers from Severodonetsk would then have to cross the Donets River, which is within reach of Russian artillery and air forces. Russia has already destroyed a bridge over the river, leaving only one road as an escape route.
The Ukrainian authorities estimate that 15 thousand of the 120 thousand inhabitants remained in Severodonetsk, an industrial city with a large fertilizer factory. Those left behind have been without water, gas and electricity for weeks, and are living in cellars almost permanently. On Tuesday, four more bodies were found under a collapsed building.
‘A matter of days’
The Russian army command must win a victory from the Kremlin after heavy defeats and losses in other places in Ukraine. Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu said last week that “the liberation of the Luhansk People’s Republic is nearing completion.” Olga Skabejeva, an ultra-nationalist presenter on state television, called Russia’s victory in Luhansk “a matter of days”.
The capture of Severodonetsk would be a boost for the Russian advance in the Donbas. At the same time, military analysts point out that Russia will suffer heavy casualties in the battle for the city and will need time to fill gaps in battered battalions. In a failed crossing of the Donets River, Russia lost almost an entire battalion. On Sunday, Russia lost another Su-25 fighter to Ukrainian air defenses south of Severodonetsk.
But according to Governor Hajdaj, the Russian army still has more soldiers and weapons in Luhansk. At some points along the front, Russia has 20 times more military personnel than Ukraine, Hajdaj said. He says that Russia is deploying about 12,000 soldiers in the offensive in the province.
For defense, the West must provide more artillery systems and armored vehicles for infantry transport, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Koeleba said on Tuesday. He mainly appeals to Western European countries – they supply far fewer weapons than the United States. Koeleba reminded the countries that the Russian offensive in the Donbas is the heaviest offensive on European soil since World War II.
Severodonetsk is by no means the only place in the Donbas where there is heavy fighting. Russia has taken parts of the towns of Avdiivka and Lyman in recent days. It carries out increasingly heavy shelling to capture territory in the Donetsk province. According to Ukraine, the Russians are preparing for an advance towards the cities of Slovyansk and Bachmut. But a rapid capture of those cities, according to US military think tank The Institute for the Study of War, is unlikely “given Russia’s previous achievements in urban areas in eastern Ukraine.”