According to a new study, on average a quarter of Dutch people think code red and orange from the KNMI are nonsense. Research agency I&O research conducted five surveys last year on behalf of the KNMI.
Four times after code orange was declared, and once after code red, before storm Poly. Eight percent of respondents thought code red was nonsense and 39 percent thought code orange was. Five questions about why this research is so important:
1. What was investigated?
KNMI uses the studies to adjust the accuracy of the warning: “It matters for the appreciation of the weather warning whether people see its usefulness. We have been conducting these polls regularly for a few years now,” says KNMI spokesperson Josine Camps. “Of course we always see the sentiment afterwards. But the polls immediately go out, with the warnings. It is important for us to know immediately how Dutch people receive our warnings. That is valuable information.”
2. What were special results?
Many of those surveyed felt that the warnings were issued at the right time. A small portion (zero to six percent) thought the warnings came too early. A major exception in this study was storm Poly. 29 percent thought that the KNMI warnings came too late. With code orange, four in ten Dutch people adjust their behavior. With code red this is six out of ten.
3. Is there also a difference per age group?
The research shows that mainly people over 65 find the warnings appropriate; Young people often think this is nonsense. “It is a known problem with us. This is also evident from image studies. We score higher among people over 65,” says Camps. “We are working to find out why this is lagging behind among young people.”
4. What happens to the results?
“Previous studies showed that people do not understand what a warning exactly means,” Camps said on the phone. Code orange warns Dutch people to be prepared for bad weather conditions. And code red advises that you take action. “Since the end of 2022, we have been providing more information about what someone can do about the warnings. Remember not to take to the road with an empty trailer in heavy gusts of wind. We really see that people appreciate that. People want tools,” says Camps.
After storm Poly, 42 percent of respondents indicated that they had a greater need for specific information, such as location. “We also understand that criticism and are working on a plan to make the warnings region-specific in the future,” the spokesperson said.
5. What is the criticism?
Experts are critical of the use of color codes. “This is a symptom of the excessive desire for regulation and urge for control in our country,” says mass psychologist Hans van de Sande. Social psychologist Arjan de Wolf finds its continued use ‘patronizing’. “Dutch people don’t like that.”
“We do not see in the studies that people find our advice patronizing,” says Camps. “We also understand that it is sometimes a lot of information. But if it will storm three times a week, we cannot say: ‘We will no longer warn.’ It remains dangerous every time.”
In addition, the warnings are not only for citizens, says Camps: “We do this in consultation with Rijkswaterstaat. For example, it also concerns trucks that take to the road or the ports.” It is often impossible to investigate afterwards whether a warning was exaggerated. “You don’t know if nothing happened because that empty trailer stayed at home because of our warnings.”