At a conference in Munich on Friday, European leaders did not allow themselves to be tempted to make predictions about the duration of the war in Ukraine. However, German chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron underlined that Ukraine can also count on their support in the long term, that Putin must not win the war anyway and that the coming weeks will be “decisive”. Macron said he is “ready for a protracted conflict”. Scholz predicted: “Putin’s revisionism will not prevail.”
Shortly before, President Volodymyr Zelensky had opened the annual security conference in the Bavarian capital with a video plea for faster arms deliveries. “We need speed. Our lives depend on it.” Zelensky compared Ukraine to David fighting a Russian Goliath.
Representatives from a hundred countries will be present in Munich this weekend. The Russian regime is not welcome for the first time in decades. The conference traditionally has a strong Atlantic character, and this year, just before the anniversary of the Russian invasion next week, is mainly a demonstration of Western steadfastness.
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“We must step up our support so that the people of Ukraine and its armed forces can counteroffensively increase the chances of credible negotiations,” Macron said. “It is also very clear that this is not the time for dialogue” with a Russia “that chooses war, that chooses to intensify the war, that commits war crimes and destroys civilian infrastructure.”
Investing in armed forces
Russia cannot and must not win this war and Russian aggression must fail, “because we cannot accept the trivialization of the illegal use of force,” Macron said. Otherwise, European and global security will be jeopardized. The only acceptable way to bring Putin back to the table is to act collectively with credibility, he said.
Macron also tried to look a little further into the future. Peace, he said, is only credible if the West is not only strong today, but also maintains the current unity in the long term. He therefore appealed to European countries to continue to invest in their armed forces. “If we Europeans want peace, we must invest in defense.”
We will continue to strike a balance between providing the best possible support for Ukraine and preventing an unwanted escalation
Olaf Scholtz German chancellor
For example, he would like the European countries to act more closely together in the defense of European airspace. Europe should also think more carefully about nuclear deterrence and take more responsibility itself, in addition to the nuclear protection that Europe enjoys from the US. He recalled that the US has canceled an intermediate-range missile arms deal with Russia. Europe was not a party to that agreement, but it was about Europe’s security.
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Scholz couldn’t suppress a smile when it was mentioned that Germany is now alone in supplying Ukraine with advanced Leopard 2 tanks. At first, Scholz was under fire for weeks because he refused to release deliveries of the German-made tanks from other countries. After securing President Biden’s support, he tacked and promised that Germany would also donate the advanced weapons. But when it comes down to it, other countries that have the tanks aren’t exactly generous with donations.
No blueprints
Scholz underlined that he always keeps an eye on the risk of escalation. Putin’s war is about an imperialist war of a nuclear power. That is a new situation for which there are no blueprints, says Scholz. “We will continue to strike a balance between providing the best possible support for Ukraine and preventing an unwanted escalation.”
In addition to the war in Europe, the increasingly difficult relationship between China and the West is also on the agenda. This Saturday, both US Vice President Kamala Harris and China’s foreign minister will speak. Before the balloon incident, the great powers seemed to be heading for a cautious rapprochement.
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of February 18, 2023