In midterm elections, Americans vote with their hearts, but they choose a new president with their minds. It is a pattern that political interpreters in America keep drawing. The loss of the Democrats lay before this one Midperms sure. But its magnitude could make the 2022 elections historic.
President Biden was the worst performer at 39 percent among Americans. Only Bush in 2006 and Truman in 1946 got worse halfway through the ride. Not nice to go into those ‘elections of the heart’. Not wanting to hinder Democratic candidates, Joe Biden decided to stay away from states where the race was tight. Major American newspapers predicted disastrous results for the incumbent president – and a triumph for the previous one.
Because that’s what history is about: whether Trumpism will continue its triumphant march after the ripple of a lost presidential election. It was declared ‘stolen’, according to the contemporary Dictator Handbook. First because Trump’s personality cannot bear loss, then to further break down democracy and commit a power grab. The storming of the Capitol was the result.
But Trump’s candidates did not fare well on the eve of the midterms. Republican heavyweight Mitch McConnell diverted financial support away from the Trumpists. Pennsylvania was conquered by the Democrats at the expense of Trump’s candidate. Suddenly it is no longer certain that the Republicans will conquer the Senate.
And so, in the midst of a severe economic crisis and a poisoned political landscape in which conspiracy theorists and election saboteurs set the tone, a four-leaf clover grows very carefully. Because the Republican deniers of Biden’s election victory score poorly. And quite a few people who give Biden a fail vote – very unusually – for the Democrats anyway. That is hard to read other than that the large middle groups are turning away from Trump. And that could be the end of Trump in the Republican party.
That is not the end of the battle. The poison that eats away at democracy runs deep in American society: the irreconcilability, the hostility, the polarization, the willingness to use force, the wanton lies and undermining of the rule of law. Precisely the threats against which Dutch politicians – following the American ones – seem difficult to arm themselves against.
Attacks from self-proclaimed outsiders can be countered. It becomes more dangerous when party political interests win over democratic principles, when the rule of law is thrown in front of the bus. Like last week, when the Council of State again cut off a shortcut to more nitrogen. After that it became clear that coalition parties deliberately design new illegal policies every time, just to be able to push them out for as long as it takes.
That is a denial of the democratic rule of law, the ingenious system designed to keep barbarism out. We must sanctify that system, and not, as in America, individual freedom. Or, as in The Hague: party political power. That can hurt, the Romans already knew that: Dura lex, sed lex. The law is harsh, but it is the law.
The still undecided midterms in America could be a turning point. President Biden has been decidedly unpopular due to the global economic slump, but there is support for the system he defends. On the wasteland of an impending civil war, a new social fabric can grow that renounces violence and honors the rule of law. Then Biden could lose this battle, but win the war for all of us.