Liverpool have been really dangerous in attack. There is a real giant bang in Spain.
The European futsal calendar has reached the halfway point.
So now is a good time to look at what the advanced stats have to say about the first half of the season for the English Premier League, Spain’s La Liga, Italy’s Serie A and Germany’s Bundesliga.
In this story, we highlight the most significant statistical oddities that the traditional Series Table does not show.
Can Liverpool last?
In the Premier League, most teams have played 20 or 21 matches. Even somewhat surprisingly, Liverpool holds the top spot with 45 points. Manchester City and Aston Villa are two points behind.
When the league table is formed according to expected points (xPTS), Liverpool drops to third with 38.79 points expected. Manchester City is first (43.09) and Arsenal second (39.24).
So what explains Pool’s top spot? Jurgen Klopp’s the group has been very dangerous offensively this season. It has created the most expected goals (xG) in the entire league, at 46.31. It has scored 43 goals.
Although Liverpool’s forwards especially the 9-role Darwin Nunez receives criticism for his wastefulness, Pool, who scores goals and creates chances in this model, is clearly a champion candidate. The team will not fall for the waste of the Uruguayan Darwin.
Kevin De Bruyne returned to City’s line-up during the Count. ZumaWire / MVPHOTOS
On the other hand, Chelsea (44.01), who underperformed by as many as nine goals, is a perfect example of how wastefulness can be reflected in the standings. Chelsea is only ninth in the league.
Liverpool has made the fourth most successful passes into the attacking third and the third most into the penalty area.
Liverpool’s biggest question marks focus on preventing goals and To Mo Salah. The Egyptian star was injured on Thursday in the African Championship tournament. At the top of the goal+assist statistics, Salah has been irreplaceable for Liverpool this season as well. A long absence would be a disaster for the team.
Liverpool have conceded 18 goals this season, but the expected goals conceded (xGA) is more rugged at 24.88. In other words, either goalkeeper Alisson has had a top hit between the posts or luck has been on Liverpool’s side – or both. In xGA, Arsenal (19.71) and Manchester City (19.74) are ahead of Liverpool.
At some point, the variance will strike and the Merseyside red group’s own net will start to falter if it doesn’t improve its organized play without the ball.
Sensation roars
The small Catalan club Girona is teasing the big ones. ZumaWire / MVPHOTOS
The biggest sensation in European futsal is the tiny Catalan club Girona (49 points), who are at the top of La Liga at the time of writing. Real Madrid, which has played one less match (48 points), has one match less, as does fourth-placed FC Barcelona (41 points).
The expected points and goals do not justify Girona’s top spot in any way. Its xPTS is fifth best at 31.93. xGA, on the other hand, is the fifth worst in the entire league, 33.96. According to expectations, Girona should have conceded almost 10 more goals.
Even surprisingly, the top spot in xPTS is Barcelona (41.37), which has been at its level based on that. Real Madrid (37.08), on the other hand, has overperformed its xPTS by almost 11 points.
Barcelona pilot Xavi has justified his team’s poor results with bad luck a couple of times during the season. At least the statistics support Xavi’s words. Barcelona creates a goal threat from match to match, but they have scored almost 10 goals less than expected.
Based on these, you can understand why the Barcelona management trusts Xavi’s process. It still can’t afford to lose a lot of points in terms of the championship.
Girona’s championship would be a massive surprise. Leicester City, which was crowned the Premier League’s sensational champion in the 2015–16 season, could be considered a reference case. At that time, Leicester exceeded their expectations by more than 12 points. So miracles do happen.
Or finally, Leverkusen?
Lukas Hradecky dreams of the Bundesliga championship in Leverkusen. EPA / AOP
Lukas Hradecky shines from week to week with the goal of Bundesliga leader Bayer Leverkusen. Based on xPTS alone, however, Bayern Munich (40.72) should lead the league, with Leverkusen (36.75) third.
Measured by all three statistical expectations, FC Bayern is number one. It creates the goal waiting by far the most in the entire series, and it doesn’t give many chances of its own.
Hradecky’s saves can be seen in Leverkusen’s statistics. Leverkusen has conceded six goals less than it expected (18.07). Having played one game less, the Munich team would move to within two points of Leverkusen with a win.
The company of the pharmaceutical company, nicknamed “Neverkusen”, has been dazzlingly good Xabi Alonso under. In the spring season, the pace must continue or else the Bavarians will pass.
Championship hangover
Naples doesn’t work. Not even with Walter Mazzarri. ZumaWire / MVPHOTOS
In Italy, the top two looks as they should in terms of both realized and expected points. Internazionale is first (51 points) and Juventus second (49). Both have scored slightly more points than expected, but the challengers still can’t even come close to the duo.
Last season’s Napoli Scudetto seems to be a romantic memory. The reigning Italian champion is ranked eighth. Based on both goal and point expectations, it should be higher, but the team’s game has slowed down.
Hired as head coach in the summer Rudi Garcia knew the task was really difficult. The poor results brought the dismissals in November. by Walter Mazzarri in the light of the statistics, it hasn’t even gone as well as Garcia.
The trophy will therefore travel to Milan or Turin.
Statistical sources: Understat and Fbref