ARD weather expert Karsten Schwanke also sees the consequences of climate change on skiing holidays. Many ski areas have their end in sight – but others are benefiting.
Karsten Schwanke combines two things in one person that are difficult to reconcile. On the one hand, he is a passionate skier and, on the other hand, as a meteorologist and ARD weather expert, he has a ruthless view of the rapidly advancing global warming.
Their consequences, like that Schwanke says in the Sport inside podcast, he experiences it first hand while skiing. “If I only look at the last two winters, it rained several times in January, i.e. in the so-called midwinter, in high-altitude ski areas in Austria and Switzerland up to an altitude of two and a half thousand meters. That happened in the 90s and the beginning of the year 2000s not.”
Karsten Schwanke: “We will live to see the end”
His hobby and his job also make him a sought-after advisor in his private life. “More and more friends from our circle of acquaintances are asking: Tell me, Karsten, how long can we continue skiing? Then I say: We’ll live to see that we can’t do it anymore.”
Science agrees that ski tourism is becoming obsolete, at least in Germany, starting with the low mountain ranges such as the Black Forest, the Harz or the Erzgebirge. Recently, many of these areas have indeed experienced favorable winter daysbut without intensive artificial snowmaking, Winterberg in the Sauerland, for example, would no longer be able to offer serious ski tourism for a long time. And modern snow cannons also need low temperatures.
End of low mountain ski areas in 2050?
That’s why Jürgen Schmude, emeritus tourism researcher at the University of Munich, calls the use of artificial snow a transitional technology. “At the moment it’s probably still worth it, otherwise the actors wouldn’t do it,” said Schmude on WDR 5. But because of the rising temperatures “In the long term, the low mountain ranges will disappear from the map of winter sports areas – and in the long term that means 2050.”
The forecasts for the German Alps are not much better. That’s where 2050 stayed “Perhaps there are still two or three ski areas left that offer winter operations in an economically sensible way,” said Schmude.
Schönau am Königssee: Tobogganing instead of skiing
At some point there comes a point where the financial outlay for artificial snow and slope preparation is no longer worth it. This is already the case in Schönau am Königssee. The ski area at Jenner with the mountain station at an altitude of 1,672 meters has closed. It was only in 2019 that they invested 57 million euros in new lifts and wider slopes, but after that there were too few skiers.
The town is now experiencing its first winter without skiing, but with a new toboggan run that can be prepared much cheaper.
The tourists are looking at money
A problem with ski areas in Germany: Large parts of the public are price-conscious, including when it comes to ski passes. That’s why any price increase must be carefully considered, says Maximilian Wittig, a geologist at the University of Munich. He researches the topic of winter sports in times of climate change. “With every more expensive ticket price, the market must be aware that a certain group will then be lost as a target group,” says Wittig in the Plusminus podcast.
However, costs are rising inexorably because more artificial snow is needed and the seasons are becoming shorter. The necessary sales must therefore be achieved on fewer snow days. More expensive prices are inevitable, which means skiing is increasingly becoming an elite sport. And from the middle of the century, almost only regions at higher altitudes will be able to offer ski slopes.
“Ski tourism will continue to exist there and it will continue to boom,” says tourism expert Schmude. “But these areas are not in Germany, but in France, Switzerland, Austria or Italy.”
Zermatt’s ski area: A beneficiary of climate change?
A dazzling example is Zermatt in Switzerland. The Matterhorn Ski there Paradise boasts itself as the highest ski area in the Alps Peak at almost 4,000 meters. The Theodul Glacier is also open to skiers in summer. The ski area is also very large and stretches across the border into Italy.
Even if the glacier on the Matterhorn, like all glaciers in the world, is shrinking rapidly, Zermatt has the best conditions to survive the vast majority of other ski areas in the Alps. And so the Matterhorn Ski Paradise even benefits from global warming, at least in the medium term – and if you ignore negative consequences such as increasing mudslides and rock falls.
Good business with wealthy tourists
Cynically, one can speak of a tightening of the market when ski resorts close. If demand remains high, the few remaining providers can increase prices. And Zermatt has never had a problem with that. “We are the most expensive ski resort in Europe,” Markus Hasler, Managing Director of Zermatt Bergbahnen AG, told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. An economic institute has calculated that a family of four has to shell out 8,000 euros for a week-long skiing holiday in Zermatt.
The fact that Zermatt aggressively formulates its high prices is due to its target group strategy. The mountain village sees itself as a luxury destination and, with the world-famous Matterhorn behind it, attracts tourists from the USA, Great Britain and Asia – an international, well-heeled audience.
New cable car, new slopes – new World Cup start?
The strategy is working, the mountain railways are reporting record profits and further investments. Newest attraction: Alpine Crossing, an impressive cable car from Zermatt to Italy Cervinia over the Kleinmatterhorn – with superlatives. It is the highest Alpine crossing by cable car between two countries
The people of Zermatt are also investing in new slopes – and a ski world cup could soon take place on one of them. In recent years, Zermatt has attracted negative headlines. A spectacular downhill route called Gran Becca should mark the start of the season. Highest start, longest route, only border crossing in the World Cup – here again superlatives.
Departure Zermatt-Cervinia – a debacle
However, the project’s critics were right in their concerns that the weather would be too unstable so high up and so early, namely late December/early November. There was too little snow on the first attempt in 2022, and too much wind on the second attempt in 2023. All eight planned World Cups in Zermatt/Cervinia had to be canceled. So that the season doesn’t start with bad news every year, the world association FIS removed the new route from the calendar.
This didn’t go down well in Zermatt, especially since, ironically, the conditions would have been suitable for World Cup races in 2024. Franz Julen, initiator of the route, also points to a five-year contract with the FIS. “It is up to the World Ski Federation to make suggestions to us,” he said in the NZZ in November.
New attempt for a World Cup in Zermatt?
But an idea also comes from Zermatt itself. A new piste is planned from Gornergrat down to Schweigmatten, actually only for tourists. But it could also be an option for World Cup races.
The start is at an altitude of 2,800 meters, lower than the Gran Becca. “The route is also a bit more protected, I could definitely imagine it happening there,” says ARD weather expert Schwanke, who has also skied in Zermatt. Because of the northern slope location, the alternative route from Gornergrat is considered to have snow until April.
New slope will not be ready for World Cups until 2027/28 at the earliest
However, the slope still has to be built; a World Cup in Zermatt would not be possible until 2027/28 at the earliest. The people of Zermatt will have to wait at least until then until the Matterhorn adorns the TV broadcasts of the FIS races.
But even without this additional advertising, you can be sure that tourists will continue to come and will certainly be willing to buy the expensive ski passes again. The price is dynamic, changes depending on conditions and crowds. A day of skiing in Zermatt can cost up to 130 euros.