That is what the Central Planning Bureau (CPB) predicts in its new economic estimates. This was eagerly awaited in The Hague, because the cabinet uses them as a handle to start working on the long-awaited purchasing power repair in the coming weeks.
The figures will provide some reassurance to the ministers concerned, even if they are still surrounded by uncertainty. The CPB expects a major blow this year and is counting on inflation of just over five percent. That takes a bite out of purchasing power of 2.7 percent.
3.4 percent
Because of the uncertainty, the calculators also calculated two alternative scenarios. In the variant in which the damage of the war is not too bad, inflation is 3 percent and purchasing power falls by 0.6 percent. In the heavier variant, this involves a price increase of 6 percent and the citizen’s purse shrinks by 3.4 percent.
But in all cases the pain will only be suffered this year, the CPB calculates. For next year it is already registering a purchasing power recovery of 1.5 to 1.9 percent, because the planning office is counting on rising wages and indexation of pensions. And the economy continues to grow in the calculations. This year by 3.5 to 4.2 percent and next year by 1.4 to 2.6 percent. Unemployment rates also remain fairly stable at the current low level.
With the purchasing power assignment that the cabinet faces, the planning office will indicate that it is not wise to try to compensate everyone generically: “It is not necessary for everyone, and for those who need it, it is just insufficient.” Targeted compensation for lower incomes with high heating costs is desirable, but according to the CPB it is also difficult to implement. The planning office recommends increasing the compensation for low incomes via the municipalities (currently 200 euros per household).