ABSTRACT: New last week All-time high for the DAX – and is it still going on?! As long as the DAX can stay above the SMA20 at the end of the day, further upward impulses could arise that could reach new highs. Conceivable starting targets could be 17,595/610 points and then the area around 17,830/45 points.
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Current DAX analysis (Future-based) on February 25, 2024: chart analysis, Weekly outlooktrading setups and more – for active day traders
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DAX framework conditions:
The mood in the German economy has improved somewhat after the setbacks of the last few months. The Ifo index rose moderately by 0.3 points to 85.5 points in February compared to the previous month. This value was expected by the market, so this news did not determine the price of the stock markets. The economy in Germany is stabilizing at a low level. GDP did not grow in 2023, and the prospects for 2024 are also rather bleak. It is expected that economic output could decline again in the first quarter of 2024; over the course of the year it is expected that the economy will slowly regain its footing. It remains to be seen whether the entire year 2024 will end with a plus. The federal government is assuming mini-growth of 0.2 percent.
Declining investments continue to hamper the economy. The construction industry in particular has come under pressure due to the reluctance to invest and high interest rates. If the reluctance to build in Germany does not subside soon, an increasing number of bankruptcies is expected.
DAX review: (02/19/2024 -02/23/2024)
The DAX started premarket trading on Monday morning at 17,125 points. The index is therefore 91 points above the first pre-market quotation on Monday morning of the previous week but 7 points below the weekly closing date on Friday evening of the previous week. The DAX hardly moved at all on Monday. Buying interest was not particularly strong on Tuesday either, and the DAX continued to move sideways in a tight box. It wasn’t until Wednesday that some buying pressure emerged, but it initially leveled off again. There was a dynamic relief movement towards the close of trading on Wednesday evening. The upward momentum continued immediately on Thursday morning. It went up to over 17,400 points, above which the DAX then settled. The rise was consolidated on Friday. The DAX joined 17,458 points from weekly trading.
The DAX was able to increase in the past trading week another all-time high mark that it was formatted just below the 17,500 point mark. The weekly low was also formatted above the previous week’s level, it was also above the 17,000 point mark. Also in the last trading week one could significant weekly gain are reported, the fifth this year. The range was somewhat the same as the week before and was once again above the annual average.
When we exceeded the 17,394/96 point mark on the upside, we expected that the DAX could reach our maximum target on the upside at 17,411/13 points. This movement has occurred, the maximum starting target has been reached and clearly exceeded, The setup didn’t fit perfectly – but our basic assessment of “The Bulls deliver” was completely correct. The setbacks did not go to our next target on the bottom at 17,063/61 points when we fell below 17,076/74 points.
DAX – What could happen next:
Dax resistances
17,515/91
17,614
17,771
17,912
DAX supports
- 17,364/10
- 17,241
- 17,172/50/23/03
- 16,971/40
- 16,880
DAX chart check – view in the daily / 4h chart:
DAILY
The DAX has moved sideways in a comparatively tight box in the last few weeks of trading. The index initially fell below the SMA20 (currently at 17,103 points), but was able to stabilize in the area of the SMA50 (currently at 16,940 points) and immediately go back above the SMA20 and subsequently establish itself. It wasn’t until the middle of the last trading week that things picked up with momentum and momentum. Thursday’s daily candle was one with the widest range in several months. This can also be clearly seen in the daily chart. With the upward movement, the bullish momentum has increased again. New all-time highs were set on Thursday and Friday. In the course of this, we also reached our overarching target of 17,440/55 points, which was achieved and just exceeded.
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The daily chart can therefore be interpreted in an unreservedly bullish manner. As long as the DAX can stay above the SMA20 at the end of the day, further upward impulses could arise that could reach new highs. Conceivable starting targets could be 17,595/610 points and then the area around 17,830/45 points.
Setbacks could occur up to the SMA20 and should be interpreted as uncritical as long as the DAX manages to recover within the range of this line. However, if the SMA20 cannot be held as support and it falls below this line at the end of the day, this could be an indication that the losses could continue into the SMA50 area.
- Classification of higher-level chart image, forecast (Daily chart): bullish
View in the 4h chart:
At the beginning of the week, the DAX initially fell below the SMA20 (currently at 17,310 points), but managed to establish itself within the orbit of the SMA20 and subsequently move above this average line again. There was a dynamic upward trend on Thursday and the increase was consolidated on Friday.
The 4-hour chart can also be interpreted in an unreservedly bullish manner due to the upward movement on Thursday. The same applies here: as long as the DAX is trading above the SMA20, new highs are conceivable and possible at any time. Brands that could be approached were defined on a daily basis.
Setbacks could occur at the SMA20 or the SMA50 (currently at 17,172 points). If the SMA50 does not hold as support, it could go down again towards the SMA200 (currently at 16,972 points).
- Classification of short-term chart image, forecast (4h): bullish
Conclusion: the bulls formatted more highs in the last trading week. As long as the DAX is trading above the SMA20 at the end of the day, further highs could occur. The daily chart would become cloudier if the DAX had established itself below the SMA50 at the end of the day.
- Probability of a bull scenario based on our setup: 65%
- Probability of bear scenario based on our setup: 35%
Assessment for the new DAX trading week:
Long setup: The bulls could initially try to keep the DAX above the 17,450 point mark. If this is successful, it could continue upwards to our next approach targets at 17,468/70, at 17,485/87, at 17,497/99, at 17,511/13, at 17,524/26, at 17,535/37, at 17,549/51, at 17,561 /63 and then go to 17,575/77 points. Above the 17,575/77 point mark, the DAX could reach our next target points at 17,589/91, at 17,609/11, at 17,624/26, at 17,637/39, at 17,650/52, at 17,663/65, at 17,681/83, at 17,696/98, 17,712/14, 17,729/31, 17,744/46 and 17,761/63 points respectively.
Short setup: If the DAX cannot stay above the 17,450 point mark, the bears would have the opportunity to push the DAX to our next target levels at 17,438/36, at 17,424/22, at 17,410/08, at 17,393/91, at 17,380/78 , at 17,365/63, at 17,349/47, at 17,335/33, at 17,321/19, at 17,305/03 and then at 17,292/90 points. Below the 17,290/92 point mark our next target points would be at 17,273/71, at 17,259/57, at 17,249/47, at 17,233/31, at 17,215/13, at 17,201/199, at 17,179/77, at 17,165/ 63 or 17,148/46 points.
Overarching expected DAX trend in week 09/2024:
Sources: xStation5 from XTB
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