Bitcoin spot ETFs record billions in inflows: CryptoQuant CEO expects steep Bitcoin rally to up to $112,000

• Bitcoin in rally mode: Huge spot ETF inflows provide momentum
• CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju expects it to rise to $112,000
• Ju’s worst case scenario: Bitcoin at $55,000

Bitcoin investors initially cashed in immediately after the spot ETFs were approved in mid-January, and the original cryptocurrency therefore suffered from profit-taking. However, the small price loss is long gone and Bitcoin continued its rally at a rapid pace from the beginning of February. It recently even broke the $52,000 mark, once again reaching the much-noticed threshold of two billion market capitalization. In addition to the prospects of the Bitcoin halving, which is expected in April, the reverberating effect of the spot ETF approval by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is often cited as an important reason for the recent price jumps.

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Spot ETF introduction a complete success

These exchange-traded Bitcoin spot ETFs offer investors the opportunity to invest in Bitcoin without having to purchase the cryptocurrency directly. Apparently a large number of investors are relying on spot ETFs: In the past few days, the new funds have attracted considerable amounts of money. “The launch of the ETF investment vehicles is now beginning to bear fruit,” commented crypto expert Timo Emden from Emden Research to the German Press Agency. “The capital inflow is grist for the investors’ mill.”

Just a month after launch, the nine leading Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have surpassed 200,000 Bitcoin, or $9.5 billion in assets. The nine Bitcoin ETFs include those from BlackRock iShares (IBIT), Fidelity (FBTC), Bitwise (BITB), Ark 21Shares (ARKB), Invesco Galaxy (BTCO), VanEck (HODL), Valkyrie (BRRR), Franklin Templeton ( EZBC) and WisdomTree (BTCW). According to “crypto.news” information, these companies collectively own almost 1 percent of all 21 million Bitcoins, more than MicroStrategy, Tether and all public Bitcoin miners combined. There are two other approved spot ETFs in the USA: In addition to Hashdex (DEFI), this is the one from Grayscale (GBTC), which recently had to cope with enormous outflows of money due to high fees.

According to the German Press Agency, many experts emphasize that a significant part of these capital inflows can be attributed to reallocations within the cryptocurrency sector. Nevertheless, there is no question that previously skeptical investors can now enter the crypto market more easily thanks to Bitcoin ETFs. In addition, spot ETFs are also of interest to large institutional investors such as billion-dollar US pension funds.

CryptoQuant CEO: Even “worst case scenario” means potential for advancement

The result of the ETF boom is likely to be further upward pressure on Bitcoin. This is the opinion of, among others, the CEO of the US crypto analysis company CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju. He expects the current trend of spot ETF-related inflows to continue. According to a post on X (formerly Twitter) by Ki Young Ju, his “worst case scenario” for Bitcoin is at least $55,000. The targets were set by the CEO based on the impact of inflows on Bitcoin’s market capitalization and a metric that has historically indicated whether prices were “overvalued” or “undervalued.”

#Bitcoin could reach $112K this year driven by ETF inflows, worst-case $55K.https://t.co/HrkV3TU8Ul pic.twitter.com/jBn6HWpt9b

– Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) February 11, 2024

Bitcoin soon even six figures?

The CryptoQuant boss’s more bullish scenario, on the other hand, would break a new sound barrier, as a coin of the original cryptocurrency would cost a six-figure amount for the first time. Ki Young Ju calculates that the ratio between Bitcoin’s market capitalization and realized capitalization indicates a peak for Bitcoin between $104,000 and $112,000. At these prices, the ratio would reach 3.9, a level that has marked price peaks in the past.

Realized Cap is a variant of market capitalization that values ​​each UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output; represents all unspent coins assigned to a Bitcoin wallet, editor’s note) based on price the last time it was moved, as opposed to its current value. As such, it represents the realized value of all coins on the network, which in turn contrasts with their market value.

Jo highlights the huge inflows of money into spot ETFs as the reason for his confidence. The BTC market is seeing an inflow of funds from spot ETFs of $9.5 billion per month, which could increase the realized limit by $114 billion, as Ki Young Ju calculates. The significant capital outflows from the Grayscale Spot ETF (GBTC) could not harm Bitcoin: Even with outflows from GBTC, an increase of 76 billion US dollars could push the realized upper limit from 451 billion US dollars to 527-565 billion Increase US dollars.

Crypto sector characterized by bullish forecasts

However, Ki Young Ju does not seem to want to commit to when Bitcoin will reach a level of over 100,000 US dollars. In general, the CryptoQuant CEO is in good company: more and more experts – many of whom work in the crypto industry themselves – have recently exceeded their price targets. ARK investor Cathie Wood set probably the most bullish price target of all in mid-2023: She believes an increase in Bitcoin to $1.5 million by 2030 is possible.

Editorial team finanzen.net

This text is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation. finanzen.net GmbH excludes any claims for recourse.

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