It is undisputed that artificial intelligence will have a major impact on the job market. But how do companies assess the development and which jobs still have a future? The WEF’s Future of Jobs Report 2023 provided a forecast for the next five years.
Fourth Industrial Revolution is underway
The World Economic Forum (WEF), which takes place annually in Davos, presented its “Future of Jobs Report 2023” in May 2023. This report examines how the labor market may develop in the near future. The research includes 803 companies from 27 different industries, which in total are responsible for approximately 11.3 million employees worldwide. The authors of the report see the current change as a kind of fourth industrial revolution, due to the significant transformation in the companies surveyed, which are increasingly relying on new technologies.
Most technologies lead to more jobs
According to the report, the introduction of most new technologies is expected to have a net positive impact on companies’ jobs over the next five years. However, agricultural technologies, digital platforms, apps, e-commerce and artificial intelligence are likely to significantly revolutionize the labor market in the foreseeable future. Many companies assume that jobs will relocate within their companies. However, this creates a positive balance, as job gains in other areas are expected at the same time. In particular, applications in big data, technologies to address climate change and environmental issues, and encryption and cybersecurity will see strong growth, according to the report. Only humanoid and non-humanoid robots are new technologies that are not expected to create a net increase in jobs over the next five years.
Technological progress and digitalization determines job prospects
According to the report, whether an industry grows or shrinks depends on technological progress and digitalization, as well as sustainability. Highly growing occupations relative to their size include AI and machine learning specialists, sustainability experts, business intelligence analysts, information security analysts, renewable energy engineers, and solar energy installation and systems engineers. Particularly strong job growth is also expected in the areas of education (10 percent), agriculture (30 percent) and e-commerce. On the other hand, clerical and secretarial jobs, bank clerks, cashiers, postal clerks, ticket agents, data entry workers, bookkeeping, accounting, payroll, and administrative and executive secretaries will shrink the fastest, the report predicts.
The companies surveyed consider cognitive skills such as creativity and analytical thinking to be increasingly important in a rapidly changing world. Particular emphasis is placed on analytical thinking, which respondents consider to be particularly important. Creative thinking takes second place. In addition, resilience, flexibility and agility are seen by the companies surveyed as essential qualities for the future.
Structural changes lead to job losses
Overall, according to the report, employers expect significant structural changes and fluctuations in the labor market over the next five years. Significant disruption is expected, particularly in the areas of supply chains, transport, media, entertainment and sports. In contrast, smaller changes are expected in the manufacturing and retail and wholesale sectors of consumer goods. Overall, the companies surveyed forecast an increase of 69 million jobs and a decrease of 83 million jobs over the next five years. This would result in a net loss of 14 million jobs.
Companies expect job increases through AI
A comparison with an earlier WEF report from 2020, to which the current report refers, shows that the forecasts do not necessarily have to come true. Currently, companies estimate that 34 percent of all business-related tasks are performed by machines and 66 percent by humans. This represents an increase of about one percent compared to the 2020 WEF report – a significantly smaller increase than forecast three years ago. At the time, it was predicted that 47 percent of all business processes would be automated in the next five years.
In contrast to the previous expectation of strong substitution of physical work by new technologies, companies now expect that work tasks that have to do with communication, reasoning and coordination will increasingly be replaced by AI applications in the next few years. However, how this process will affect the labor market is unclear. Of the companies surveyed, 75 percent are expected to adopt AI applications in the next five years. However, there are differences in the assessment of whether AI applications will lead to net job losses or increases. While 50 percent expect an increase in jobs, only 35 percent expect job losses.
Editorial team finanzen.net