Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is beyond the imagination of many – inside and outside the country. In Kharkiv, people who were always positive about Russia are now also being shot into the ‘Russian world’ with bombs and missiles. They are – as long as they survive – stunned, in shock.
A similar revolution is taking place in Europe, but between the ears. “This is when the penny dropped,” said Alice Billon-Galland, a French researcher at the British think tank Chatham House. She is hesitant to talk about political consequences as people die in Ukraine, but agrees that the invasion has shaken up European societies. ‘In Europe, opinions about what the threats are have always been very different, now much less so.’
According to experts, it is not the case that a ‘sovereign’ or ‘autonomous’ Europe is suddenly emerging. But in the medium term, the revolutionary German political turn – away from accommodation with Moscow and towards greater military responsibility – may well work. Simply put, as long as Europe’s greatest economic power didn’t want to be a military power, ‘Europe’ couldn’t be either. Now that Putin is also taking the Germans with a heavy hand into the power-political 21st century, things are changing.
Strategic autonomy
Until now, the way ‘strategic autonomy’ was presented in Europe was actually a pacifier. Because if a future Trump II administration in the US really turned its back on Europe, the reality was not an autonomous Europe but a continent under Russian influence. That changes now that the Germans follow the French definition of strategic autonomy (a military player, less dependence on surrounding autocrats).
Germany will have to invest heavily in boosting a neglected armed forces, says Dick Zandee of the Clingendael Institute. ‘The backlog is terribly large.’ Throughout Europe, more attention will be paid to elements that NATO has been asking for in vain for years: ground forces and firepower. The ability to operate with larger units for a longer period of time (sustainability) has completely disappeared, and not only from the Dutch armed forces.
Within the EU, projects and funds have already been set up to boost the defense arm. What Europe mainly lacks is what experts ‘enablers’ mention: strategic air transport, command and control systems, real time (satellite) information, and so on.
VVD MEP Bart Groothuis argues that Europeans should jointly develop these resources within the framework of NATO. Others, such as professor Rob de Wijk (who said last year that NATO is ‘on its ass’ and ‘will certainly no longer exist’ in thirty years’ time), say that it must be done in a European context.
‘A lot can still go wrong’
Left or right, support for any form of European rearmament will quickly evaporate if it is not accompanied by greater efficiency, less fragmentation and more standardization of equipment. MEP Groothuis: ‘We spend 380 billion a year on defense, but we cannot fight against an army that spends 60 billion. There must be room for improvement.’
Billon-Galland points out that the war is creating a new political reality. ‘This is an important moment in European awareness. Europe itself has chosen a very active role, the US plays a very reasonable role with a lot of consultation and without taking the lead – and Great Britain is also involved in EU consultations.’
According to her, this indicates that much of the ideological struggle in Europe, also about the role of the Americans, can be thrown into the trash. “Nobody doubts that the US is a very important player. New for Europeans is the realization that the US can be both a reliable partner and one that is not enough to deter Russia altogether. Europe must build its own capacity, not to turn away or to be less dependent on the US, as before, but because it is necessary to defend itself. Chancellor Scholz also said that: we are doing this because it is in the German interest.’
That European self-awareness could be seen in full action last week. But it is still too early in the war for drastic conclusions. A lot can still go wrong, or go differently than foreseen. Nor can Europe afford to ignore those other threats, whether it be China’s assertiveness or the situation in the Sahel. Billon-Galland: ‘As terrible as it is to say now, those other threats won’t disappear by themselves either.’