GOLD: Is there a broad weakness emerging?! 🔴 The current gold analysis on January 27th, 24 🔴 Chart analysis, weekly outlook and trading setups

ABSTRACT: In the daily chart it can be seen that the precious metal moved sideways in the past trading week. It initially went into the $2,035 area, but despite a few attempts it didn’t go any further. Gold fell back below $2,020. The chart shows that the precious metal has been in the orbit of the SMA50 (currently at $2,026.5), but has not managed to settle above this line. We certainly see the option for broader weakness in the foreseeable future.

• Current gold analysis on January 27th, 2024: Chart analysis, weekly outlook, trading setups and more – for active day traders

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Gold review: (01/22/2024 – 01/26/2024)

gold was trading at $2,020.7 on Monday morning. The precious metal was 34.5 US dollars below the level on Monday morning of the previous week and 7.50 US dollars below the weekly closing on Friday evening. Gold was moving generally sideways until Tuesday morning. There was a dynamic upward movement on Tuesday morning, but it was sold off immediately afterwards. The next attempt to overcome $2,035 was launched on Wednesday, but this move was also sold off in the afternoon, with the sell-offs being significant. Only in the area of ​​2,010 US dollars did the stabilization and the subsequent recovery occur, which lasted until midday on Friday, but was only of a moderate nature. Some weakness appeared again on Friday afternoon, with gold slipping back below $2,020. Gold was included $2,018.5 from weekly trading.

The weekly high is below the previous week’s level. Gold has thus formatted its fourth lower high in a row. The weekly low, however, was formatted above the previous week’s level. It turned on again Weekly loss (around 0.5% on a weekly basis), but this was smaller than the week before. The range was also significantly smaller than the previous week. It was also well below the previous annual average.

On the upside, we had expected gold to reach our next target on the upside at $2,037.9 when it crossed $2,035.5. This movement has stopped, the starting target was missed slightly, The setup worked almost perfectly. The setbacks did not reach our next target at $2,008.3 as we fell below $2,010.4.

Gold – What could happen next:

Gold resistors

• 2,020.5
• 2,021.0
• 2,021.2
• 2,022.8
• 2,026.5
• 2,032.4
• 2,033.6
• 2,042.7
• 2,058.9
• 2,062.2
• 2,078.2
• 2,088.4
• 2,143.7

Gold supports

• 2,018.2
• 2,012.1
• 2.00,3
• 1,998.8
• 1,989.5
• 1,974.1
• 1,963.6

The most important brands based on our gold setup:

• Intraday mark 2,064 and 1,977
• Daily closing marks 2,122 and 1,915
• Break1 Bull (Where-End) (1,916)
• Break2 Bull (Mon end) (2,041)
• Cyclical movements 2020 – 2033
• Box range 2,223 to 1,466
• Range 2,484 to 746

Gold chart check – viewing in the daily / 4h chart:

DAILY

In the daily chart it can be seen that the precious metal moved sideways over the past trading week. It initially went into the $2,035 area, but despite a few attempts it didn’t go any further. Gold fell back below $2,020. The chart shows that the precious metal has been in the orbit of the SMA50 (currently at $2,026.5), but has not managed to settle above this line. Another problem is that the SMA20 (currently at $2,0432.4) is running towards the SMA50 from above. On the one hand, this makes it even more difficult for the precious metal to move back towards $2,050, and on the other hand, it would be a bearish signal if the SMA20 breaks through the SMA50.

What options does the precious metal have based on the daily chart? Gold has fallen below the SMA50 and has not yet reestablished itself above this line. If it wants to have a chance of reaching $2,050, it must also be above the SMA20 at the end of the day go. In our opinion, this move can only be achieved with dynamism and momentum. However, if this movement occurs and gold can push itself above the SMA20 and, above all, establish itself afterwards, it would still be important that it continues upwards quickly, ideally directly above US $ 2,060.

However, if it is not possible to reflect this movement, it is conceivable and possible that further charges could occur, which could go further into the range of 1,988/86 US dollars or 1,974/72 US dollars. Overall, the SMA200 area (currently at $1,963.6) could also be approached if widespread weakness occurs.

• Classification of higher-level chart image, forecast (Daily chart): neutral

View in the 4h chart:

The chart shows that the precious metal has made four attempts to overcome the SMA200 (currently at $2,033.6) in the last few trading weeks and has failed four times. At the end of the week the fifth attempt was made, but this was also unsuccessful. The movement already withered in the area of ​​the SMA20 (currently at 2,021.0 US dollars) / SMA50 (currently at 2,024.1 US dollars) as can be seen in the chart. Gold has reestablished itself below the SMA20 in the wake of the levies.

This leaves the 4h chart to be interpreted bearishly. As long as the precious metal is trading below the SMA20, further levies are conceivable that could achieve the start-up targets mentioned in the daily analysis.

Recovery movements have the prospect of initially reaching the SMA20 or the SMA50 (currently at 2,021.2 US dollars). If the precious metal can move above these lines, the SMA200 could be started again.

• Classification of short-term chart image, forecast (4h): bearish

Conclusion: Gold must try to push and settle above the SMA20 at the end of the day. If this succeeds, the upward movement could be resumed towards $2,060/62. A daily close below the SMA50, confirmed the following day. could indicate further charges that could go towards 1,978/74 US dollars or 1,965/63 US dollars.

• Probability of a bull scenario based on our setup: 30%
• Probability of a bear scenario based on our setup: 70%

Assessment for the new gold trading week:

Long setup: Gold could initially try to stay above $2,018.4. If this succeeds, it could continue upwards to our next approach targets at 2,020.5, at 2,021.1, at 2,022.8, at 2,024.3, at 2,026.8, at 2,029.1, at 2,032.1, at 2,033 .8 and then go to $2,035.7. Above the $2,035.7 level, gold could reach our next target targets at 2,037.9, at 2,040.1, at 2,042.8, at 2,044.5, at 2,046.8, at 2,049.2, at 2,051.5 , at 2,053.6, at 2,056.4, at 2,058.8, at 2,059.9, at 2,060.1, at 2,062.4, at 2,064.2 and at 2,066.0 respectively.

Short setup: If gold cannot stay above the 2,018.4 US dollar mark, the precious metal could initially reach our next target levels at 2,016.5, at 2,014.7, at 2,012.6, at 2,010.4, at 2,008.3, at 2,005.1, at 2,002.8, at 2,000.4, at 1,998.9 and then at 1,996.4 US dollars. Below the $1,996.4 mark, our next target targets would be 1,994.3, 1,992.1, 1,989.6, 1,986.5, 1,984.5, 1,982.1, 1,980.9, 1,978 .4, at 1,976.1, at 1,974.0, at 1,972.2 and at 1,969.5 US dollars, respectively.

Overarching expected gold trend in week 05/2024:

source: xStation5 from XTB

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