Outside, many took the disconcerting irruption of Javier Milei for another setback by the feared “ultra-right” that has recently scored electoral victories in Germany, Italy, Sweden, the Netherlands and, if some predictions are correct, could be about to achieve even greater ones in the United States, where Donald Trump is increasing its advantage over Joe Bidenand in France, where according to opinion polls it is very possible that Marine Le Pen will succeed Emmanuel Macron as a tenant of the Elysée Palace.
Those who think this way are not completely wrong, since, like others, Milei would like to rewind history to reinstate principles that prevailed in past times that in his opinion were happier, but because the situation in which Argentina finds itself is so different, it has very little in common with its alleged co-religionists in Europe and the United States whose rise is largely due to measure to their willingness to stop “the invasion” of their countries by large crowds of immigrants from cultures that are radically different from their own. This is an issue that does not concern Milei; He has other priorities. Although in her way she is as nationalist as Trump and the Europeans, it happens that here the populist and leftist militants are also nationalist.
In addition to wanting to completely change the dysfunctional local economic order that is generating more and more poverty, Milei is determined to relocate Argentina on the diplomatic map of the world. Unlike the Kirchnerists, who privileged ties with the dictatorial regimes of Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba and, less ostentatiously, Iran, Milei emphasizes his desire to stand in solidarity with Western democracies, starting with the United States and Israel.
The chancellor Diana Mondino He fully shares his vision of Argentina’s place in the world although, for obvious reasons, he was not enthusiastic about the electoral proposal to break with the nominally communist China and Lula’s Brazil because they are, for better or worse, two extremely important trading partners. Be that as it may, the Government upset the Chinese by choosing to disassociate from the “Brics”an anti-Western alliance promoted by Beijing that has just incorporated the bellicose Iranian theocracy that, according to the national Justice, was behind the deadly attack against the AMIA headquarters in July 1994 in which 88 people died and more than 300.
The turn in Argentine foreign policy has occurred at a very opportune time. Leaders of countries committed to the order “with rules” that the United States has supported for three quarters of a century, are busily seeking reliable friends in the rest of the planet.
They need them. As the feeling spread that the still reigning superpower is actually a paper tiger that lacks military power necessary to play the role it attributes to itself – or, at least, the will to use what it theoretically possesses – nations described as “autocracies”, led by China, are striving to take advantage of the emotional weakness they have detected in Washington and European capitals.
Impressed by political and cultural success In the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia of the “woke” movement, according to which “white” peoples are congenitally racist and sexist and therefore deserve to be colonized by their moral superiors, some have become convinced that Western civilization has already has been exhausted and will soon be replaced by another.
In the opinion of such figures and of those North Americans and Europeans who feel distressed by what is happening, the spectacle provided by the immense crowds that, in the streets of London, New York, Paris and other cities celebrated the massacre of young Israelis by the Hamas terrorists, served to confirm that, despite its material opulence and the technological innovations it continues to produce, the West, victim of its internal contradictions, is dying. It has also contributed to the optimism felt by convinced that the world is undergoing a geopolitical transformation It is irreversible that the arms industries of the United States and Europe have been incapable of providing Ukraine with what it would need to defeat Russia, which, despite having an economy smaller than Italy’s, is producing more ammunition than Westerners.
Because the international panorama is so bleak from the point of view of the defenders of liberal democracy, the sudden appearance in Argentina of a clearly charismatic president who does not hesitate to assert himself has been a very pleasant surprise. determined to support not only the United States but also to Israel in its struggle to survive in a Muslim-dominated part of the world. As much as they may have been disturbed by his eccentricities, such as his apparently mystical relationship with cloned dogs and his frequent allusions to the “forces of heaven,” they can only hope that he achieves his earthly objectives so that Argentina stops being a major financial problem. to become a relatively stable and prosperous country.
It was out of fear that Argentina would default once again, a disaster that would surely have dire repercussions for many other countries, that the International Monetary Fund He gave up falling into the temptation of breaking with the government of Alberto, Cristina and Sergio Massa. It would be assumed, therefore, that, under pressure from the United States, the Europeans and Japan, the organization will adopt a much more positive attitude towards the country of a president who is carrying out an adjustment that is strikingly more severe than that recommended by its own technicians.
However, much more important than the eventual reaction of Kristalina Georgieva and company in the face of the challenge posed by Argentina will be that of businessmen and investors from rich countries. China’s growing difficulties, which have been aggravated by the “cold war” it is waging with the United States, and the poor prospects of the so-called “greater Middle East” stretching from Morocco to Malaysia, are encouraging them to look for opportunities. in less dangerous areas. Thus, if the idea spreads that, finally, Argentina has chosen to abandon the easy populism that has led it to its current condition to apply measures similar to those that have provided good results in the countries that today make up the developed world, it would not be surprising if many wanted to participate in the eventual boom that people like Elon Musk who have hundreds of billions of dollars would foresee.
Milei insists that it would take a long time before the project she has made her own is completed; She predicts that, after “45 years,” Argentina could multiply its gross per capita product by ten so that we would be “like Ireland.” What Milei did not point out is that the glittering numbers of the Celtic “miracle” They depend on the presence of the accounting headquarters of a handful of American technology giants that take advantage of the tax advantages that Ireland offers them to launder their enormous global profits, which is why there are skeptical economists who believe that this is a bubble that sooner or later will explode.
Although in the opinion of President Milei, Argentina “will once again be the richest country in the world” – it is assumed that it once was – when he is about to turn 100, he cannot but hope that the program of structural reforms that he has put in place underway will provide good results very soon. No matter how stoic people are, it would make no sense to ask him to wait decades before seeing the fruit of his labors. He knows that unless inflation falls quickly after a traumatic couple of months and the majority has concrete reasons to believe that the nascent model is producing benefits, it would not be entirely easy for the Government to stay in power. Nor would it be that the country, which lacks its own financial resourceswill manage to get out of the crisis without the help of external investors willing to risk supporting with hard cash a president whose ideas they claim to share.
Milei’s program is two speeds. In the short term, he is working to help the country avoid the hyperinflation that continues to threaten it; In the long run, he understands that it would take a long time to carry out an authentic cultural or educational revolution to prepare the population to face the challenges that a world in which the destiny of people will depend mainly on their intellectual capacities would pose. In this endeavor, the experience of eastern countries, especially Singapore, could be more useful than that of Ireland, since more than half a century ago the great Lee Kuan Yew, with ideas quite similar to those advocated by Milei, imposed the task of turning what was in his opinion “a pit of misery and degradation” into a modern, prosperous and corruption-free State. Lee achieved what he had set out to do; In thirty years, the per capita income of Singaporeans multiplied fifteen times, much more than the ten times in 45 years predicted by Prophet Milei.
