A suspension that has raised suspicions in France. The cancellation of the Council of Ministers last Wednesday has multiplied rumors in the neighboring country of a possible change of governmenteven from the First minister, Elisabeth Borne. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, promised on December 31 in the traditional end-of-year speech a 2024 of “action” and “determination.” However, government paralysis has predominated in this first week. Few official announcements and events. “The president has suspended the time for an indeterminate period,” an Elysée advisor assured the newspaper. Le Monde. “Everything is possible, even nothing“he added, referring to a possible remodeling of the Executive.
The rumors of remanufacturing They are a classic of French politics, especially in periods of crisis. After the revolt in the ‘banlieues’ at the end of June, speculation had already multiplied that Borne’s days were numbered and that she could be replaced by the Minister of the Interior, Gérald Darmanin. In the end, all that rumors led to a much more modest government remodeling: eight ministers changed out of a total of 40.
Almost six months later, a similar situation is reproduced after the feuilleton for the approval on December 19 of a harsh immigration law, composed of numerous measures to the taste of the Republican right and the extreme right, some of which could be “unconstitutional,” the prime minister acknowledged. The adoption of this text with the votes of the Macronist coalition, The Republicans (LR, related to the PP) and the National Regrouping of Marine Le Pen It led to the resignation of Health Minister Aurélien Rousseau—and Borne’s former chief of staff—. The Universities made a threat of a possible resignation and three other ministers (Culture, Transport and Industry) also expressed their discomfort over the controversial legislation.
Borne, the fuse after a 2023 to forget?
From the wave of union protests—the most massive in this 21st century in the neighboring country—against the unpopular pension reform in the first half of the year to the imbroglio over the immigration law, Macron experienced a truly complicated 2023 in domestic politics. After a year horribilis, Borne seems like the perfect fuse. At least, this is what several sectors within Macronism believe. “A new page opens. We need a new impulse, a renewal. But with what personalities? With what government architecture? (…) The president must decide,” said François Bayrou, leader of the centrist MoDem formation, which makes up the Macronist coalition along with the Renaissance party and Horizons of former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe.
Borne “is the hand of the king.” “Instead of the head of the Government, it seems like the secretary general of the Elysée“, political scientist Luc Rouban, director of research at the CNRS and at Sciences Po Paris, explains to EL PERIÓDICO. Since her appointment in May 2022 as prime minister, a reputation as a performer and not very political profile accompanies this technocrat who, before making the leap to Macronism in 2017, had held positions in ministerial cabinets of the Socialist Party, without ever becoming a member of the Rose Party. During the more than 19 months that she has been in Matignon, Borne, 62, has become the most unpopular prime minister in Macron’s presidency. His sympathy levels are lower than those of Philippe or Jean Castex.
“She embodies a kind of macronist authoritarianism“says Rouban, referring to the fact that Borne has appealed up to 23 times to the controversial decree 49.3 of the Constitution which allows laws to be approved without a parliamentary vote. She is the second prime minister who has used this ‘decree’ the most in the history of the Fifth Republic. Ultimately, Borne’s weakness reflects Macron’s difficulties in his second term, marked by the absence of an absolute majority in the National Assembly —something unusual in the presidential Fifth Republic. According to Rouban, “the problem is the way in which this possible remanufacturingsince it will not serve to solve the problem” of a lack of a stable parliamentary majority.
The pressure of the European elections
After being scalded by the feuilleton of the immigration law, a hypothetical appointment in Matignon of the controversial Darmanin is priced downwards. The names that are most popular this week are those of Minister of Economy, Bruno Le Mairedefense, Sebastien Lecornuand Ecological Transition, Christophe Bechu —all of them were part of the Republican right. But a surprise appointment is not ruled out. Or the surprise is that in the end there is no significant change.
Macron, in fact, has a reputation as a president who likes to put up with his prime ministers. However, it can be practically foolhardy to bet on continuity, especially when there are about 150 days left for some European elections in which the extreme right is the favorite in France. The polls give 30% voting intention to Le Pen’s party, 10 points more than the Macronist coalition. The June 9 elections are presented as the classic mid-term vote that could leave the centrist leader on the ropes.
Related news
“I will have the opportunity in the coming weeks to tell you how the nation will face these challenges,” Macron said Dec. 31 from the Elysée. A few weeks earlier, the president had already promised “a great meeting with the nation” in January. In a significant part of the French public opinion, however, there is skepticism regarding these “big announcements.” The Elysée had already announced a similar initiative for the rentrée in September. But in the end that was limited to two meetings between the president and the heads of the main parties, both the presidential coalition and the opposition.
Although 2024 will be marked in France by events with a planetary impact – since the commemoration in June of 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings to the December reopening of Notre Dame, to the Olympic Games in Paris during the summer—Macron risks being trapped by the inertia of difficult domestic politics. And that this weakens it at the European and international level.