2023 was dominated by voter dissatisfaction

„Don’t be hasty.” It is Treebeard’s motto The Lord of the Rings, a bearded, old tree-like person who is said to have a lot of wisdom. Don’t be hasty. Political scientist Kristof Jacobs, affiliated with Radboud University, often thought about it after the election results of November 22, when he heard one explanation after another explain the PVV’s big win. Frequently heard: the PVV voters were not so much concerned with Geert Wilders’ program, their vote for the PVV had to do with a great need for social security.

The first results of the National Voter Survey, which questions voters about the motives behind their vote choice, provide a different picture. PVV voters, both loyal and new, believe that the PVV has the best program, which is closest to their own positions. Migration and asylum are mentioned most often. Jacobs is one of the scientists who coordinates the NKO. Participants in that study were able to indicate in their own words why they voted what they voted, he explains. “We not only looked at ‘social security’ in the answers of PVV voters, but also at other terms that could indicate this, such as ‘poverty’ or ‘money worries’.” These were also almost non-existent. What did become clear: “Research into policy priorities shows that a stricter migration policy has the highest priority for PVV members. And not, for example, more houses. That is the case with other voters.”

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2023 was a turbulent political year, dominated by voter dissatisfaction and low political confidence. Research by the Social and Cultural Planning Office has repeatedly shown that trust in the government and in the House of Representatives has been low among Dutch residents since the 2021 elections. They worry about crises and accuse politicians of a lack of problem-solving capacity. This week, SCP research also showed that almost a third support the statement that “tough action” is needed against the government if it “fails to listen again and again.” What people see as tough actions is not clear from the research. It is true that large numbers of Dutch people disapprove of violence.

“If confidence has been low for so long, you know that a storm may be coming,” says Jacobs. He is, he says, especially surprised by the surprise about the election results – which he said you could have seen coming. “People are looking for a messiah, someone who will solve their problems for them.” Moreover, the PVV has been one of the major parties in polls for some time. “And the major parties are becoming smaller and smaller. That makes it easier for other small parties to become the largest.” The fact that the campaign was also about migration, a theme that voters quickly linked to the PVV, completes the sum.

NRC asked Jacobs and two other political scientists about what they believe are the biggest misconceptions about the current political zeitgeist. And also what lessons they draw from the political year 2023.

Limited explanation of democracy

“The biggest misconception is to think that a party has the right to govern because it received a quarter of the votes,” said Armen Hakhverdian, an associate professor of political science at the University of Amsterdam. “And that it would be undemocratic if the PVV did not govern.” Explaining democracy in that way, he continues, “is very limited and harmful.” The fact that three-quarters of voters voted for other parties is, according to him, “also a signal.”

In his lectures he teaches students that the democratic constitutional state is based on two pillars: one is about sovereignty and representation of the interests of the people, the other about constitutionalism. “The two are sometimes at odds. You don’t want nothing to be allowed because of the constitution, but you also don’t want everything to be allowed because democratically elected parties want it.” After the elections, Hakhverdian sees, “the needle has moved to one pillar: the people have spoken. The rule of law pillar is seen as an obstacle, as something that holds back plans instead of protecting us all.”

The persistent misconception according to his colleague Sarah de Lange, who specializes in populism and radical right parties: “The idea that you can undermine populist radical right parties electorally by paying attention to their themes and by moving in their direction in terms of positions”. It is an idea that she sees in all traditional parties, in the campaign of the past elections especially in the VVD, but rather in the CDA and PvdA. De Lange: “We have known for twenty years from scientific literature that such an accommodating strategy does not work. What does work is to think about the social issues at hand from your own ideas, so to formulate a social democratic or conservative-liberal response to immigration or shortages on the housing market.”

Isolationist

If politicians had looked more at the countries surrounding us, says De Lange, they would have known that. For her, it is the lesson of 2023. “We have become very isolationist in the Netherlands, very concerned with what is happening with new parties and with small discussions about, for example, electoral thresholds. But it’s really important that we see the bigger trends at the European level to understand where our future lies.”

There, radical right parties have been polling around 25 percent of the votes for some time. She points to France, where Emmanuel Macron is trying to copy the radical right, while Marine Le Pen’s party continues to grow. “Vlaams Belang is growing in Belgium. In Germany and Austria, which are comparable to us in terms of political culture, the radical right is also large. In Austria this even concerns 30 percent of the voters. And that is partly because the established parties on the right are making the same mistake there.”

The big lesson that Kristof Jacobs learned is how quickly myths about the election results take on a life of their own and are adopted by media and politicians, among others. This led to the National Voter Survey also sharing preliminary results this year, earlier than normal. “We wanted to show what was wrong with some of the statements that were immediately circulating,” says Jacobs. As an example, he cites a persistent story spread by Geert Wilders, among others: that many Muslims would have voted for his party – a claim that has been refuted by the NKO. “We show that the most striking thing about the election result is that it is not very striking. That is important, because people no longer have to look for crazy explanations.”

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