The PP grows and the PSOE falls after Sánchez’s investiture pacts

The PP grows at the expense of the erosion suffered by the socialists as a consequence of their agreements with the independence movement. Sánchez’s concessions and the unrest expressed on the street in the form of demonstrations would allow Feijóo to add up to 13 more seats than at the polls and, now, he could assemble a majority to govern with the support of Vox. In fact, the PSOE, which could be left until 16 deputiesbreaks the usual trend that the first polls of a legislature tend to be benevolent towards the party that has just formed the government.

If elections are held now, Feijóo would obtain the 32.5% of the votes and 145-150 seats (today it has 137), which means that in four months it would climb two and a half points. More than four points is what Sánchez would lose, who would remain in the 27.3% of the votes and 105-110 deputies (he is now 121). The difference between the two would be almost eight points in favor of the popular party, when in the July elections Feijóo’s advantage was just 1.3 points.

Add and Vox They would obtain results similar to those given to them at the polls, with a new tie between the two. In July, the extreme right of Santiago Abascal narrowly retained third position with just one tenth and two seats that the coalition of Yolanda Diaz. This poll now places them tied with the 12.5% of the votes and 30-35 deputies for each formation. Vox today has 33 parliamentarians and Sumar has 31.

Despite this tie, the big difference with respect to the elections is that the sum of PP and Vox would move in a range of 175-185 seats which would give Feijóo access to the Moncloa, when in July they remained at 170. On the contrary, the PSOE and Sumar would fall from 152 to 135-145 deputies. And the GESOP confirms that the survey, prepared from 1,002 interviews from November 21 to 23 (after the appointment of the new ministers), reflects an atmosphere of dissatisfaction with the evolution of the country.

The formation of the new Government and the issues that have marked the political agenda in recent weeks have contributed to the increase in political polarization and the territorial division, from which the PP clearly benefits. While the popular vote’s loyalty is close to 80%, that of the PSOE barely exceeds 60%. One in 10 PSOE voters in July would choose Feijóo’s ticket today, which would also attract 14% of Vox voters.

Another consequence of this very polarized context is the drop in middle notes of all political leaders regarding the GESOP barometer for the month of May. Although he fails like everyone else and goes back two points, Feijóo turns around and surpasses Díaz as highest rated leader (4,4). The second vice president of the Government loses four tenths and is left with 4.2. Sánchez’s drop is even greater, half a point (3.8), and he is the leader who obtains a lowest rating among their own voters (6.2), but he is the only one who approves among Catalans (5.2).

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Regarding Catalonia, as tied as they were in the elections they would be again CKD and Together. The polls gave the Republicans a minimal advantage of three tenths, but both obtained 7 seats. Now the poll places both of them with the 2% of the votes and 7-8 deputies. However, and although the survey does not estimate what representation it would achieve, the PSC would win the elections again on the streets by obtaining a 24.6% of direct voting intention (the vote without ‘kitchen’).

The pacts with Sánchez They have affected JxCat the most, whose voting loyalty is close to 65% but is 24 points lower than that of Esquerra. However, in direct vote, the Republicans remain one point below the post-convergents, who would manage to attract one in 10 ERC voters in July. By the way, the second force in direct voting intention in Catalonia is the PP, which in the last elections already garnered more ballots than the two pro-independence forces.