Promotion aspirant HSV welcomes Eintracht Braunschweig this evening for a northern duel in the 2nd Bundesliga. Statistically speaking, Hamburg’s role as favorite could not be clearer based on how the season has gone so far. But the penultimate team comes to the Volkspark with a new coach and fresh feelings of success.
The numbers speak for themselves. On the one hand, coach Tim Walter’s team has six home wins from six games, while BTSV has six defeats from six away games. Home strength on the one hand and away weakness on the other couldn’t be more obvious.
“We don’t even have to start discussing being favorites,” said BTSV new coach Daniel Scherning. “In my opinion we are facing the best team in the league, full of top players for this league.”
HSV at home with a clean slate
After the third away defeat of the season on the last match day in Kiel, Hamburg are happy that they have another home game today (6.30 p.m., in the NDR Livecenter). While HSV was the strongest away team in the league last season, the team is currently completely lacking this ability with just one success away from home. At home, however, they have an impressive tally of 18 points from six matches – with a goal difference of 15:3.
Even though Walter claims that they play the same at home as away, the GSN data shows the discrepancy between Hamburg’s appearances at the Volksparkstadion and away this season. Differences can be seen particularly in pressing and duels. While the second-place team has an average of 19 high pressing situations in their home arena, there are an average of less than ten in other stadiums.
Ramos fit again, Ambrosius about to return
At home, the Hanseatic League also wins an average of almost 52 percent of duels, while away from home they only win 47 percent of duels.
| Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 18 | 6 |
| Goal difference | 15:3 | 11:14 |
| High pressing situations | 19.0 | 9.67 |
| won duels | 51.65 percent | 47.13 percent |
| Header duels won | 52.03 percent | 48.37 percent |
| Shots | 19.0 | 13.83 |
| Shots from the opponent | 9.67 | 13.57 |
| Expected Goals | 2.91 | 1.71 |
| Expected goals of the opponent | 1.11 | 2.09 |
Guilherme Ramos is someone who has had one of the best stats at HSV in this regard. The Portuguese central defender, who had to be substituted against Kiel, is available to Walter again. And even with Stephan Ambrosius, who was recently injured, it could be enough for Ramos to be in the starting eleven, as the coach explained.
Walter has to rebuild his defense again
After the loss of Sebastian Schonlau and the yellow card suspension for Dennis Hadzikadunic, the central defense is almost setting itself up, even if Walter still wants to keep the option of switching to a three-man chain open. No matter whether in terms of personnel or tactics, it is already clear: in the fifth game in a row there will be the fifth different defensive formation that the HSV coach sends into the race.
The 48-year-old spoke strongly about midfield director Immanuel Pherai, who came from Eintracht before the season and is still scoreless, before the duel with his former club: “He has an incredible talent, great dribbling speed and wants to learn every day. ” Although he still needs more consistency, Walter drew a comparison to top performers like Ludovit Reis and Laszlo Benes, who also needed time to get used to it. At Pherai he expects the “same path”.
Unity on foreign pitches: one goal, no point
On the other hand, Eintracht lacked penetration in many games this season – also due to Pherai’s departure; especially abroad. The Braunschweig team have not yet picked up a point in six matches on foreign pitches. In the 540 minutes, the Lower Saxony team only managed one goal – Anthony Ujah’s late and meaningless goal in stoppage time in the 1:2 in Magdeburg. That was on August 6th. Since then, the “Lions” have been waiting for a hit abroad.
In general, the penultimate team in the table has the weakest attack with just ten goals and has one of the lowest ball possession rates in the league. As the GSN data shows, the Scherning team doesn’t manage ten shots on average in away games – also because the team rarely gets into good finishing positions and on average these are around 18 meters away from the opponent’s goal.
| Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8th | 0 |
| Goal difference | 9:13 | 1:13 |
| High pressing situations | 16.86 | 22.50 |
| won duels | 48.51 percent | 49.00 percent |
| Header duels won | 41.10 percent | 45.74 percent |
| Shots | 14.43 | 9.33 |
| Shots from the opponent | 11.29 | 14.83 |
| Expected Goals | 1.66 | 1.00 |
| Expected goals of the opponent | 1.49 | 1.66 |
Conversely, the “Lions” allow significantly more shots from their opponents away from home than in home games. And yet there is hope for Eintracht after the last matchday – also with a view to the duel with the home team HSV. On the one hand, because three of the ten goals of the season so far came in the celebrated last-minute victory over Osnabrück.
BTSV tanked against St. Pauli Confidence
On the other hand, because BTSV is already winning more duels and aerial duels in away games and is more aggressive in pressing than at home. This could be an effective way to create more of a goal threat by winning high balls against Hamburg’s once again reformed and by no means solid defense.
The Lower Saxony team gained additional self-confidence during the international break with their 2-1 friendly win over league leaders St. Pauli. After turbulent weeks, the team comes to the Volkspark in the second competitive game under Scherning with at least a little tailwind. The new coach will also stick to the basic concept of relying on transition moments and set pieces from a stabilized defense after the still short time of working together.
Incidentally, a concept that allowed Eintracht to hope for a point until shortly before the end of their most recent guest appearance at the Volkspark in January. It wasn’t until deep into stoppage time that Reis buried this hope with a powerful shot after a long solo run and redeemed HSV with his goal to make it 4-2.
Scherning: We have to suffer
“There is no question that we have to suffer and do things really well. Small things are punished against such an opponent,” said Scherning before the next meeting. It is important that his team – despite all of HSV’s strengths – “gets their own strengths onto the pitch”. Faith can move mountains. “We need that to survive and gain something.”
Possible lineups:
Hamburger SV: This year Fernandes – Mikelbrencis, Ambrosius, Ramos, Muheim – Meffert – Benes, Pherai – Jatta, Glatzel, Dompé
Eintracht Braunschweig: Hoffmann – Ivanov, Decarli, Bicakcic – Rittmüller, Donkor – Kaufmann, Krauße, Helgason – Krüger, Gomez
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NDR Info | Sports current | November 24, 2023 | 6:25 a.m
