After years of stagnation, the expansion of the European Union is moving again. If it is up to the European Commission, the EU will soon start accession talks with three new countries: Ukraine, Moldova and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Georgia must be given official candidate status.
It was the most important message on Wednesday, during the presentation of progress reports on all countries that aspire to EU membership. In her characteristic big words, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke of “the call of history” towards the “natural horizon of the European Union”.
It was a meaningful signal especially for Ukraine – the war-torn country is eager for rapprochement with the EU. Von der Leyen did not fail to emphasize how impressed she is by the progress the country has managed to make. Apart from Ukraine, the war has given the expansion discussion in the EU a significant boost and has also placed the possible accession of all Balkan countries high on the agenda again.
This will not be easy or hasty – in the past accession processes took an average of ten years. The reports that Brussels presented on Wednesday also show how many very detailed measures the countries still have to implement. Every next step, the Commission continually emphasizes, can only be taken on the basis of the ‘merits’ achieved by itself. “It is in their hands, but in our interests,” Von der Leyen summarized.
Secretly, that is not entirely true – every decision about expansion is always political. Even now: the fact that Brussels believes Bosnia can take a step forward cannot be seen separately from the European fear of growing resentment and the need to give the population there perspective. Moreover, the assessment of the facts provided by the Commission is done by the EU countries, which this time must decide unanimously in December whether to adopt the recommendations.
For the time being, the mood in the EU regarding enlargement remains positive – especially in view of the geopolitical battle with Russia and China. Europe prefers to keep neighboring countries within its sphere of influence. “This is the decisive time when countries are making choices about which side they are on,” said Von der Leyen. But it remains to be seen whether the current momentum for EU expansion will hold when it becomes more concrete in the coming years.
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Ukraine
Over the past year and a half, Ukraine has managed to progress towards EU membership at an unprecedented pace. Last summer it became an official candidate member and is already advising Brussels to start accession talks. This is largely due, the Commission writes, to “strong reform dynamics” in which the country has overhauled various government structures. Of the seven ‘homework assignments’ that Kyiv received last year, four have now been sufficiently completed: the independent selection of judges for the Constitutional Court and the Supreme Judicial Council, improved money laundering legislation and an amended media law.
At the same time, Ukraine must do more to combat corruption, reduce the influence of oligarchs and protect minorities. In Brussels it is expected that these final steps will be taken in the coming months, after which ‘real’ talks can start after March 2024.
Moldavia
In the wake of Ukraine, Moldova also submitted a (successful) request to become a candidate member last year. And even more than its neighbor, Moldova is, according to an EU official, the ‘frontrunner’ when it comes to implementing reforms. Of the nine steps the country had to take, six have been completed satisfactorily. Still open are reforming the method of judicial appointments, additional anti-corruption legislation and reducing the influence of oligarchs. Because Brussels expects these additional laws to be adopted quickly, it also recommends starting discussions here.
Georgia
The rapprochement with the EU in Georgia is not going very smoothly. Although the country submitted an official request for accession last year, the pro-Russian government is simultaneously flirting with Moscow and tried to introduce a controversial law this spring that made foreign NGOs and media organizations suspicious. At the same time, there is strong pro-European sentiment among the population, which, according to Von der Leyen, is “better handled by the authorities.” [moet] are reflected”.
In order to keep the European dream alive, the country is now moving up a position and is being given the official status of candidate member – albeit with a large list of homework including far-reaching legal reforms, a serious approach to disinformation and anti-corruption policy.
Western Balkans
Putin’s war also means that the accession of the Western Balkan countries will receive new impetus. They had been sitting in the waiting room for years, without any significant progress being made. When talks about membership of Ukraine and Moldova became serious, they also took advantage of the new geopolitical reality to strongly emphasize their case.
The region as a whole is being promised an incentive programme. The six countries (Albania, North Macedonia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina) can already enjoy the economic benefits of integration into the EU, without being formal members. In addition, the EU is providing 6 billion in additional support, 4 billion in loans and 2 billion as grants. Money will only be released after countries demonstrate a series of reforms. It is not yet clear what these are.
If the six countries open their markets to each other, they can then qualify as a bloc for the EU’s free movement rules. This may concern the free movement of goods, services and employees. More flexible rules for international payments and relaxation of road transport are also eligible.
The Commission calculated that regional economic cooperation alone will lead to 10 percent more growth. Implementation of the entire plan could, according to Von der Leyen, lead to a doubling of the economy in the region. Income in the Western Balkans is on average 35 percent of the average purchasing power in the EU.
Given the formal accession procedure, the region is a patchwork. Some countries have made a lot of progress, Kosovo does not even have candidate member status yet.
Montenegro has made the most progress, but needs to strengthen the rule of law. In recent years, political modernization has come to a virtual standstill due to political instability. Albania is complimented for following the EU line on foreign policy and putting a lot of effort into reforms, but still has homework to do in the fight against corruption and organized crime. North Macedonia has also made a lot of progress, but needs to work on combating corruption and administrative reform.
The relationship with Serbia is more difficult. Negotiations, which began in 2014, have stalled as Serbia refuses to comply with EU sanctions against Russia. In addition, it must help reduce tensions with Kosovo. Conversely, Kosovo, which has applied for membership in 2022, can only progress if it wants to improve its relationship with Belgrade.
Bosnia and Herzegovina can start talks, provided a number of conditions are met.
Turkey
Has been a candidate for years, but negotiations have been suspended. The EU is looking for another way to improve its relationship with the regional power.