The VfL Wolfsburg footballers are visiting Bayern Munich for the top Bundesliga game today. But after the runner-up in 2023 and the recent Champions League exit, the aura of the “She-Wolves” is crumbling. The data analysis shows how close the championship race will be.
In a show of strength, Wolfsburg defended their lead in the table before the international break with a 2-2 draw after being 2-0 down against TSG Hoffenheim. However, the Bundesliga top group has moved closer together. And if the VfL women lose to third FC Bayern today (3 p.m., in the NDR Livecenter), the Munich women would pass.
Coach Tommy Stroot’s team seems to have lost their dominance. After defeats in the last second half of the season at Bayern (0:1) and in Frankfurt (0:4), the successful Lower Saxony team finished runners-up. That’s why they had to go to the play-offs of the Champions League and were surprisingly knocked out of the competition early against Paris FC. There were four wins in the Bundesliga before the draw against Hoffenheim – but the playful ease of days gone by was not evident.
Will the Wolfsburg women, who have been the figurehead of German club football for years, have to bake smaller rolls in the future? This is what data analysis with GSN says:
Bayern’s championship is close, but not undeserved
First of all: Yes, the Munich championship last May was close, but not undeserved. In the end, Bayern were two points ahead of Wolfsburg with 59 points. The “Expected points” were similarly close, but with 53.02 (to 51.70) points, the team of Norwegian coach Alexander Straus was also ahead in this statistic.
The Munich women were very dominant: With their 64 percent successful offensive actions, they were number one in the league, they played the most passes, had the highest pace of play and lost the fewest balls. With eight goals conceded, FCB had by far the best defense (Wolfsburg 17) – and did not concede a single goal after a counterattack throughout the entire season.
The “Expected goals” and “Expected points” model
“Expected goals” are “expected goals” and are calculated using a data model that takes into account a variety of factors – including where on the pitch the goal was scored, what the angle to the goal was and how many opponents were still between the ball and the goal. Each scoring opportunity is given a value between 0 and 1 to determine the probability of the ball landing in the goal from that point. “Expected goals” values are more meaningful than the normal goalscoring statistics, which treat all shots equally. GSN evaluated more than 3 million goals for the calculation.
The “Expected points” determine the number of points that a team “should” have gotten from a game based on the scoring chances, i.e. the “expected goals,” that they generated or should have gotten in that game. Each team gets between 0.1 and 2.7 expected points, depending on how one-sided the game was from the perspective of expected goals.
Offensive decides games, defense decides Championships
The Wolfsburg women couldn’t buy anything for the fact that they had the best offensive in the end with 75 goals. They were in first place in terms of “expected goals” as well as in goals from attacks and from set pieces. They fired the most shots on goal, won the most aerial duels and were at the top when it came to winning the ball.
In doing so, however, they involuntarily confirmed the old wisdom that the offense decides games and the defense decides championships. The last time in the 2014/2015 season was not the team with the fewest goals conceded that won the title: Wolfsburg, in second place, had only conceded four goals in 22 games this season (both duels with Bayern ended 0-0). But champions Munich only conceded seven goals and, unlike VfL, remained completely undefeated.
Can Hoffenheim intervene in the title race?
After the five matchdays so far this season, the “Wolves” have already conceded four goals. And it should be a warning to them that since the two goals they conceded at the season opener in Freiburg (2-2), the Munich team have kept a clean sheet four times.
However, Hoffenheim has the best offensive values - with an outstanding average of 3.8 goals per game. Wolfsburg comes in second place with 2.4. TSG is also ahead in terms of expected goals and some other offensive statistics – as a team, but also among individual players. With 2.25 “expected points” per game compared to the 2.22 points actually scored, the Kraichgau women are on target.
However, the data shows a strong overperformance in goals scored compared to expected goals (19 to 12.70) and also in goals conceded (5 to 6.1). With Hoffenheim’s championship probability calculated at 19 percent, it currently looks more like the duel of previous years: FC Bayern has 35 percent, Wolfsburg 33.
“I’m expecting a game at eye level again, at a top level. Even if both teams are not playing at their individual top level at the moment, it remains the top game in the women’s Bundesliga.” “
— VfL coach Tommy Stroot
Bayern squad better than Wolfsburg this year
In the past, VfL has usually looked better in direct duels: Wolfsburg won six of the last ten games in the league and cup, and Munich only won twice. With a current GSN index of 69.91, FCB is – unlike last time – the best team in the league this season. Wolfsburg’s value is 67.90. This also has to do with the fact that Munich has gained a high level of individual class, especially with Pernille Harder and Magdalena Eriksson.
What is the GSN Index?
Four-pillar principle:
- 1. “Football characteristics”: technique, game overview or first contact: assessments of 130 football-specific characteristics from more than 300 scouts worldwide.
- 2. “Football potential”: Where are players improving, where are they stagnating or regressing? An algorithm analyzes data from the first pillar and compares player types.
- 3. “Performance on the field”: goals, passes, fouls, shots or even offside positions: the basic game data and further analyzes such as “expected goals” or “action scores” are placed in a higher-level context by an algorithm – for example position-related .
- 4. “Playing level”: Every team or league has a numerical value that measures its strength. Oberliga or Champions League: The higher the opponent’s level of play, the more positive it has an effect on the GSN index.
Rating scale:
- 85 – 100: World class
- 70 – 85: international class
- 60 – 70: Average Bundesliga or the top 5 leagues
- 50 – 60: Average 2nd Bundesliga
- 40 – 50: Average 3rd league
- 30 – 40: Average regional league
Two GSN index values:
- Current GSN Index: shows the current, all-round quality of a player based on the data from the four pillars and algorithm calculations.
- possible GSN index: Artificial intelligence uses the data to determine the best possible future performance level of a player.
Popp bet is open
And so on Sunday there will be a special focus on the key players who can make the difference. However, former Wolfsburg player Harder was recently missing from Munich due to knee problems, as was VfL Alexandra Popp with muscular problems. According to coach Stroot, the captain’s use is still questionable. Defenders Marina Hegering and Dominique Janssen may also be out.
The trio completed parts of the training on Friday, Stroot said. On Saturday we will see whether that is enough for the three players. “That’s different than we wanted. But we’re still trying not to do anything stupid,” says Stroot. The deployment of national goalkeeper Merle Frohms will also be decided at short notice. The keeper was missing against Hoffenheim due to a concussion and was replaced by Lisa Schmitz.
Either way, there will be a lot of quality football to be seen on the pitch. And the “Wolfs” will do everything in their power not to let Bayern overtake them.
This topic in the program:
Sports club | November 5, 2023 | 10:50 p.m
