Rob Jetten (D66) and Esther Ouwehand (Party for the Animals) will be anxiously watching the Peilingwijzer update on Wednesday. Opinion polls are always important for political parties in the middle of the election campaign, but this ‘measurement moment’ is extra decisive. RTL will determine on Wednesday based on the latest average of the I&O and Ipsos polls which six party leaders may participate in the TV debate on Sunday, November 12. The top 5 is clear, sixth place is not: D66 and PvdD are currently hovering around 7 seats in the polls. D66 can draw hope from the latest Ipsos poll on Tuesday: the party has risen one seat.
In the last weeks before the elections, hundreds of thousands of undecided voters watch television to determine their vote. A remarkably good performance in a TV debate can ensure that voters choose a party on November 22; a slip could prevent him from doing so. And for the party leaders who are not on the big TV stage, invisibility threatens in the final weeks of the campaign.
The debates of this election campaign have a different character than those of previous campaigns. Political parties and program makers have been calling for more content for some time now. In his Binnenhof lecture last month, party leader Pieter Omtzigt of New Social Contract called for more depth in TV debates and fewer one-liners. He indicated that he would prefer to talk to a maximum of two or three parties at the same time. NSC took matters into its own hands and organized a one-on-one debate between Omtzigt and Frans Timmermans together with GroenLinks-PvdA on Monday.
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That meeting in a small theater in Arnhem was indeed a different spectacle than the usual TV debates in recent years. The two party leaders took plenty of time – one hour and 45 minutes – to discuss four topics. Omtzigt and Timmermans were thus able to showcase their vision on important themes such as climate and administrative culture. In their response, the two remained remarkably milder and more respectful towards each other than many politicians in an average parliamentary debate. “I have no criticism of Mr Omtzigt,” Timmermans said, for example, in response to his public administration reform agenda, “but only an addition.”
The duo debate had considerably less exposure then a prime time TV debate – it has now been watched online by more than 86,000 people, there were 450 people in the audience – but the campaign teams of both parties were satisfied. It was exactly the kind of debate that GroenLinks-PvdA and NSC had in mind, an NSC spokesperson said. “Plenty of room to go into depth, to really understand how the party leaders think about themes.”
Call for content
The call for more content fits the spirit of the times, says Fons Lambie, chief political officer at RTL News, and so the RTL debates will also have a different format. The number of party leaders on stage is limited: next Sunday, at the first RTL debate, there will be three (Yesilgöz, Omtzigt and Timmermans) and six on Sunday, November 12. RTL wants to give the party leaders of ‘the big three’ the space to debate with each other, Lambie explains. “There is a new era with new leaders who will be tested in the debate arena. There must be room for that, we will create it.”
The editors of the TV debates are also adjusting their formulas. This means that the party leaders no longer have to press a green or red button in most debates or debate cunningly formulated statements. These statements have made way for major themes, so that the party leaders can delve deeper into the content. The speaking time for the party leaders is expected to be longer than in previous TV debates, when the party leaders had an average of five minutes to parry attacks and make points themselves.
RTL will highlight four major themes this Sunday: social security, climate, migration and leadership. The theme of leadership will raise a number of exciting issues, such as ambitions surrounding the premiership and possible preferred coalitions. As an additional element, the party leaders may also challenge each other to a short one-on-one debate on a topic of their choice.
The TV editors say that the adjusted formulas were not chosen to please Omtzigt, but fit in with a more substantive campaign. During the first TV debate of College Tour, four party leaders answered questions from students in the audience. This gave the debate a town hall-like character, and fierce mutual attacks largely did not occur.
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New in this campaign is the ‘Debate of the Netherlands’, the first debate ever of SBS6, on November 16. This debate focuses on Dutch people who have personal experience with the four important themes: healthcare, housing, migration and making ends meet. As Mark Rutte previously discussed with Benefits parent Kristie Rongen, these Dutch people submit stories to the party leaders, who discuss them with each other and with the Dutch in the studio. That can make for exciting television: Rongen visibly shook Rutte, who is known as an excellent debater, with her sharp questions and personal story.
At RTL, only the polls count for who is allowed to participate in the debates and that is unfavorable for parties such as D66 and the CDA, currently the second and fifth factions in the House of Representatives. At NOS, these parties have a greater chance of participating in debates: based on their public task as a broadcaster, NOS wants to include all parties as much as possible, says Dominique van der Heyde, chief political officer.
The NOS therefore serves a starter and main course at the final debate, which is held on the evening before the elections. The ‘little ones’ debate in the early evening; the top 9 will be in the spotlight later in the evening. To make the distribution, the NOS uses a fixed method: a sum of the current number of seats and the number of seats polled by the Peilingwijzer.
Wilders still offside
A number of parties have to settle for few invitations, including BBB. In the polls, this party was still leading in April with no fewer than thirty seats, but BBB has now dropped to fifth position and only twelve of the thirty seats are left, according to the latest Ipsos poll. The party has lost a large part of its potential voters to Pieter Omtzigt’s new party. Due to the decline in the polls, BBB leader Caroline van der Plas has missed the mark a few times: she is not allowed to participate in the first RTL debate nor in SBS’s Debate of the Netherlands.
PVV leader Geert Wilders will also only get the opportunity to demonstrate his debating skills in the week before the elections. Wilders was excluded from the College Tour debate because, unlike the other participants, he had never been a guest on the program before. Wilders responded with irritation to X. He called presenter Twan Huys a ‘PVV hater’ because he was not invited. Next Sunday he will not participate in the RTL debate, because Wilders is not one of ‘the big three’ in the polls. As leader of the fourth party in the polls, he can be seen in the week before the elections in the second RTL debate, the Debate of the Netherlands, the EenVandaag Election Debate and in the NOS Final Debate.
The fact that the CDA is hardly allowed to participate in anything this year takes some getting used to for the party. In recent decades, the CDA party leaders have always been assured of a place in all major TV debates. Now that the CDA is at a historic low in the polls, the party is forced to debate with the smaller parties. For example, Henri Bontenbal can talk to CU leader Mirjam Bikker and Lilian Marijnissen (SP) in a regular broadcast of EenVandaag. It is extra annoying for the new party leader, because he is dependent on television for brand awareness.