Mercedes seemed to be poised for a sensation with P1 and P3 in the second section of Formula 1 qualifying for the 2023 Mexican Grand Prix. But the sensation didn’t happen: Instead of fighting for pole position in Q3, Lewis Hamilton and George Russell suddenly fell well behind the best time. But why actually?
Hamilton simply says: “We’re just not that fast.” And the Mercedes W14 has so far behaved “not so well” in Mexico and “as always this year”.
And Hamilton is even clearer: “It’s no different than other races. Austin was an outlier for us, but now the car is back to normal. I’ve been struggling with it all weekend. Driving it is a nightmare. The car simply doesn’t like this route.”
Which could also mean that Hamilton’s advantage in Austin due to his vehicle’s lower ground clearance was greater than he previously admitted. At least it could have been a factor in what made the weekend there an “outlier” for Mercedes.
In Mexico, however, the W14 behaves primarily in a “bitchy” manner and is “pretty sharp,” says Hamilton. “Sometimes the car works, sometimes it doesn’t. I just wasn’t able to get more out of it. If it had gone perfectly, I might have been able to finish P5, but that’s all.”
He finished sixth with a time of 1:17.454 minutes, almost three tenths of a second behind the leader and two positions ahead of teammate Russell, who was just over half a second behind with a time of 1:17.674 minutes.
The data analysis of the Mercedes drivers
Where did the Mercedes drivers lose the most time? This is what the data analysis from F1 Tempo shows: At the end of each straight, the faster cars pulled away. And Hamilton was at least the most behind in the second chicane, where he lost six tenths, which he was unable to completely make up for as the lap progressed.
And something else stands out: Compared to Ferrari driver Charles Leclerc in pole position, Hamilton loses the most ground in the slow passages, just like Carlos Sainz and Max Verstappen as Leclerc’s two best pursuers.
Russell, on the other hand, makes the most good on Hamilton exactly in the second chicane and is virtually in the lead at this point in the lap. By the time he reached the entrance to the stadium passage at turn 13, Hamilton had turned things around two tenths in his favor and was once again distancing Russell at the exit of the target curve.
Why Mercedes couldn’t keep up
Which brings us to the question of why Mercedes suddenly couldn’t keep up in Q3 when they had still set the tone in the third free practice session. “We thought we would fight for the first two rows of the grid in qualifying and for a podium in the race,” admits Russell. Coming from P6 and P8, his team now has a “challenging race day” ahead of them.
Russell also blames this on the W14 and its behavior on the racetrack: “In the third free practice session we were fastest and had really good pace. But in Q1 I had no grip and we were far away. In Q2 the car felt again “It was normal and we were fast. And in Q3 the exact same thing happened again.”
In an interview with Sky, Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff puts this down to the Pirelli tires and says: “It was just a matter of driving the warm-up laps two or three seconds slower or faster, and in the end you get a decent lap time. You can almost do that Don’t calculate, the tires are so fragile. And whoever gets to the point is quick.”
Ferrari implemented this “coming from nothing” better than Mercedes, says Wolff. “Both [Ferrari-Fahrer] had a fantastic first sector because they nailed the warm-up lap. We were probably traveling a little too slowly, with tires that were a little too cold. That’s why the times didn’t come.” It was “simply difficult to find the sweet spot,” emphasizes Wolff.
Last changes at Mercedes in qualifying
According to Hamilton, Mercedes left no stone unturned and “made another change” in qualifying. Hamilton remains silent about which ones exactly. He just says: “I thought that would make the car more pleasant to drive. I was also much happier with it and wish we had done that for the third free practice session. But only the second lap in Q2 was good.”
Russell explains Mercedes’ ups and downs in qualifying like this: “It’s about how the tires interact, it’s about the warm-up lap. How the temperature gets into the tires. That’s where you find that extra bit of power. The power can be just as fast but fall if you go over the limit.”
“Either you find exactly the limit and have a great performance, or you fall off and have no performance. But we have to admit: We didn’t get it right and it affected our entire weekend. That’s pretty frustrating.”
Andrew Shovlin, Mercedes’ lead engineer at the racetrack, agrees with this verdict and considers the qualifying result to be “disappointing” after his team had made “good progress” on Friday. “But we weren’t quick enough when it mattered most.”
Hamilton has “not much” hope for the race
That’s why Hamilton expects a “fight” in the race. He doesn’t have “much” hope. Tenor: “It won’t be easy with this car.”
What makes matters worse, according to Shovlin, is that recent changes to the W14 make Friday’s long run data seem “not particularly meaningful.” “Hopefully we have improved the pace,” he says. In general, however, it is “very difficult to predict how the race will develop.”
That’s why team boss Wolff only gives “the only goal”: “From our starting positions [aus] to move forward.”