The longer the war in Ukraine lasts, the greater the chance that Russia will emerge victorious, says Bearn Bilker. He warns that European countries must continue to hold each other together.
E and starting a war is not that difficult. Waging and sustaining a war, and especially ending a war, is much more difficult. We see it in Ukraine, we see it with the conflict in Israel. History shows that people often enter a war in good spirits, but then the battle intensifies, atrocities occur and the human suffering becomes incalculable.
Putin started February 24, 2022 one blitzkrieg against Ukraine. After that, everything turned out differently than expected. Ukraine resisted fiercely and a broad national resistance emerged. That made Putin sour. It forced him to constantly change strategy. At first it was aimed at encircling areas in eastern Ukraine, cordoning them off and not creating any escape routes, so that the population was literally hemmed in.
Russia (the Duma, the government and Putin) recognized the independence of the self-proclaimed republics of Luhansk and Donetsk. That was because the majority of the population was said to be pro-Russian. Russia claimed that the Russian majority was being oppressed by Ukraine and that there was even genocide. Afterwards, the countries recognized by Russia were attacked by themselves.
At the same time, Putin attacked the entire Ukraine, ostensibly to annex that country because it was allegedly led by neo-Nazis. He was sorely mistaken. The attacks on Kyiv had to be abandoned and now the fighting is again concentrated on the border with eastern Ukraine and around Crimea, which Russia captured in 2014. Drone attacks across the country have been added.
Cracks in unity
What is the strategy of NATO, of Europe, of the Netherlands in this war? The initial solidarity created by the European Union’s unambiguous responses to the brutal invasion of the Russians has long since weakened. There are plenty of concrete sanctions, as well as strong disapproving political statements, recently again with the meetings of the foreign ministers of the European Union (EU) in Kyiv and European leaders in Granada.
Eighteen months later, Europe is still looking for the right common policy and the right answer to Putin. Everything shows that every country deals with it differently and that the unity of Europe is showing cracks.
A country lies where it lies. This determines his political position and his economic interests. This certainly also applies to Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine, the breadbasket of the world, has always been the plaything of the surrounding powers: the Tsar Empire, the Ottoman Empire (Turkish Empire), the Habsburg Empire and Prussia/Germany. And now again.
We are dealing with Russia as an aggressor who, as history has proven time and time again, is unpredictable. The West must adjust its hope – and actually also its expectation – that Ukraine will win. NATO, the United States and the EU will have to take various scenarios into account. Putin’s blitzkrieg has long since turned into a drawn-out war. And the question is: who has the longest breath?
Russian Wars
In earlier centuries, Russia was often at war, such as with Sweden (the Great Northern War 1700-1721), where it appeared easy to conquer, but then emerged victorious. In 1812, Napoleon experienced what it meant to attack Russia. The vast Tsar Empire chose the long-term strategy and scorched earth tactics. The harsh winter helped them considerably. Napoleon literally had to retreat. It ended up being his total defeat.
In the Crimean War (1853-1856), Russia lost to the Turks, British and French. Here the technical equipment was inadequate, they did not have nearly enough, nor did they have the latest weapons. In the Russo-Japanese War of 1905, Russia was winning, until a few battles were fought in one go and Japan emerged victorious. That was a humiliating defeat for the Russians; for the first time an Asian country beat a European country.
If we look at the role of the Tsar Empire in World War I, the army was in poor condition. Not enough weapons and especially no ammunition and the supply lines to the front were bad. Russia was therefore forced to conclude its own peace, that of Brest-Litovsk, with Germany in 1917. In World War II, Russia was able to play its role as Allied victor with a lot of money from the United States to boost the Soviet army.
Strategy to slow down
Can we already conclude from Russia’s military and political history how the war with Ukraine will end? Not that, but one aspect does make this history clear; If the war becomes protracted, and it’s starting to look that way, the Russians’ chances will only increase. Russia’s leaders have never cared about human lives, nor do they now. Only later will people collectively venerate all the fallen as great heroes. One will not easily find individual stories of the fallen and war victims.
Another point is that countries should never attack Russia itself or want to fight the battle on Russian soil. Ukraine will never have to do that either. Then the whole of Russia revolts, because there is great belief in ‘Father Tsar’ and Mother Russia.
The only thing that is very important now, and this is in fact the case in every war, is that we must act as one bloc against the Russians. Fast and effective. But that is no longer possible. After all, some countries are already starting to wonder why they should still help Ukraine or pay for that war. That is grist to Putin’s mill. Then it turns out that the strategy to delay the war works.
Russia didn’t always win
Russia didn’t always win. This was often due to their own failures: the lack of a great military strategist, lack of quantity and quality of weapons and poor military supply lines. All three conditions now also play a leading role.
Russia does have advantages when it comes to warfare: they have plenty of time, an inexhaustible source of men, many raw materials and the country is unimaginably vast. While Russia has time on its side, the West, on the other hand, has no patience, and Putin is responding to that.
Are Europe and the United States taking into account the fact that Russia could win in the long run? This will have far-reaching consequences for the world. It is doubtful that Russia will immediately attack another neighboring country. At least not for the time being. Estonia and Latvia both have 30 percent Russian populations, so that could be a reason. But it is virtually impossible for Russia to actually occupy Ukraine in its entirety, to oppress it and, above all, to keep the population in line, because the Ukrainian population will protest en masse.
Stating facts
The main concern, however, is this: Western countries are all in deep crisis over their democracy. Discord arises all around; right-wing conservative forces do not take democratic legal rules very seriously. And in many cases they sympathize with Russia. And what happens if Donald Trump becomes president again in 2025? That is a very uncertain factor, which only plays into Russia’s hands.
Different norms apply in a war than in times of peace. Everything is usually black and white. We are in favor of Ukraine (although it is not all smooth sailing there either) and against Russia, because this is also in our own interest. Now the Hamas-Israel struggle has been added, which also threatens world peace. Politicians in the Netherlands must face and name these facts. Above all, they should not play nice during the campaign period and present numerous national problems with popular solutions just to win people over. They must indicate what these wars mean for the Netherlands, because they do have direct consequences for world peace and our social security.
Bearn Bilker is the former mayor of Kollumerland and former history teacher.